Happy Valley · 2019-10-16
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | KING'S MAN Closed strongly V 1.49.05 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · P F Yiu | J Moreira | P F Yiu | 11 | 11.0 | N |
| 2 | 0 | BULLISH GLORY Closed strongly H C Schofield · C W Chang | C Schofield | C W Chang | 9 | 9.3 | N |
| 3 | 0 | GARLIC YEAH Closed strongly C Y Ho · C H Yip | C Y Ho | C H Yip | 8 | 23.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 0 | CHEERFUL STAR Closed strongly SR-/TT L Hewitson · F C Lor | L Hewitson | F C Lor | 2 | 14.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 0 | MISTER MONTE Led early CP K H Chan · C W Chang | K H Chan | C W Chang | 1 | 5.7 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 0 | GOOD DAYS Closed strongly B/TT B Shinn · C S Shum | B Shinn | C S Shum | 3 | 15.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 7 | 0 | GODSPEED Closed strongly B T H So · D J Hall | T H So | D J Hall | 6 | 21.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | SANGRIA U Rispoli · D E Ferraris | U Rispoli | D E Ferraris | 5 | 6.5 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 0 | DREAM WARRIORS CP/H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 7 | 6.3 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 0 | THE FULL BLOOM H N Wong · C H Yip | H N Wong | C H Yip | 4 | 90.0 | 15-3/4 |
| 11 | 0 | FAMILY LEADER B/H Z Purton · C Fownes | Z Purton | C Fownes | 10 | 3.4 | 23-1/2 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-16 was Class 4 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. KING'S MAN, ridden by J Moreira and trained by P F Yiu, won by N, with BULLISH GLORY second and GARLIC YEAH third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.4 favourite FAMILY LEADER finished 11th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | KING'S MAN | 20.6% | 4.86 | 1 |
| 2 | 0 | DREAM WARRIORS | 18.1% | 5.53 | 9 |
| 3 | 0 | FAMILY LEADER | 16.0% | 6.25 | 11 |
| 4 | 0 | MISTER MONTE | 15.3% | 6.54 | 5 |
| 5 | 0 | SANGRIA | 7.9% | 12.63 | 8 |
| 6 | 0 | GOOD DAYS | 5.8% | 17.11 | 6 |
| 7 | 0 | BULLISH GLORY | 5.6% | 17.72 | 2 |
| 8 | 0 | GODSPEED | 4.0% | 24.71 | 7 |
| 9 | 0 | CHEERFUL STAR | 3.7% | 27.16 | 4 |
| 10 | 0 | GARLIC YEAH | 1.8% | 54.83 | 3 |
| 11 | 0 | THE FULL BLOOM | 1.1% | 92.17 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 112
PLACE
5 30.5
8 28
9 71
QUINELLA
5,8 458
QUINELLA PLACE
5,8 139
5,9 237
8,9 256
TIERCE
5,8,9 10,182
TRIO
5,8,9 2,428
FIRST 4
5,6,8,9 6,896
QUARTET
5,8,9,6 105,905
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
3,6,11/5,8,9 100,486
3,11,12/5,8,9 48,128
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A2 20.5
A3 —
A1 —
3RD DOUBLE
11/5 905
11/8 227.5