Happy Valley · 2019-10-16
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-16 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. G UNIT, ridden by G van Niekerk and trained by J Moore, won by 1/2, with MEHBOOB second and HAPPY GOOD GUYS third. The 1.9 favourite BEST SMILE finished 6th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | G UNIT 0.57.18 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) G van Niekerk · J Moore | G van Niekerk | J Moore | 7 | 18.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 9 | MEHBOOB XB1 M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan | M Chadwick | P O'Sullivan | 5 | 13.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 11 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS B M F Poon · P F Yiu | M F Poon | P F Yiu | 11 | 59.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 10 | DEMONS ROCK CP- C Y Ho · D J Hall | C Y Ho | D J Hall | 10 | 18.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 6 | WINNING WAYS B/TT K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 12 | 12.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | BEST SMILE H/TT Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 6 | 1.9 | 2-3/4 |
| 7 | 12 | PRAWN YEAH YEAH B/TT C Schofield · R Gibson | C Schofield | R Gibson | 2 | 6.4 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 3 | E GENERATION K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 3 | 54.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 2 | LOOK ERAS V J Moreira · Y S Tsui | J Moreira | Y S Tsui | 9 | 6.3 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 4 | SAM'S LOVE H T Mo · C H Yip | H T Mo | C H Yip | 1 | 13.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 5 | VEGA RHYTHM H H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 4 | 93.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 8 | TANG TREASURE TT1 L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 8 | 91.0 | 7 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | BEST SMILE | 32.8% | 3.05 | 6 |
| 2 | 12 | PRAWN YEAH YEAH | 16.4% | 6.10 | 7 |
| 3 | 2 | LOOK ERAS | 14.6% | 6.83 | 9 |
| 4 | 6 | WINNING WAYS | 7.5% | 13.29 | 5 |
| 5 | 4 | SAM'S LOVE | 7.2% | 13.83 | 10 |
| 6 | 9 | MEHBOOB | 5.8% | 17.16 | 2 |
| 7 | 7 | G UNIT | 5.4% | 18.38 | 1 |
| 8 | 10 | DEMONS ROCK | 3.2% | 31.29 | 4 |
| 9 | 11 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS | 2.7% | 36.61 | 3 |
| 10 | 5 | VEGA RHYTHM | 1.8% | 54.11 | 11 |
| 11 | 8 | TANG TREASURE | 1.7% | 59.88 | 12 |
| 12 | 3 | E GENERATION | 0.7% | 135.06 | 8 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
7 187.5
PLACE
7 48
9 32.5
11 120.5
QUINELLA
7,9 1,136
QUINELLA PLACE
7,9 276
7,11 736
9,11 714
TIERCE
7,9,11 51,542
TRIO
7,9,11 11,256
FIRST 4
7,9,10,11 33,826
QUARTET
7,9,11,10 935,039
1ST DOUBLE
5/7 1,668
5/9 191
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 41.5