Happy Valley · 2019-10-16
Race 5
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | OWNERS' STAR Closed strongly B/TT 1.49.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · C S Shum | N Callan | C S Shum | 7 | 20.0 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 0 | CROWN AVENUE Closed strongly V C Y Ho · C H Yip | C Y Ho | C H Yip | 3 | 9.4 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 0 | RULE THEE Closed strongly T H So · P O'Sullivan | T H So | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 45.0 | 1 |
| 4 | 0 | HUANGSHAN Closed strongly PC-/B2/TT G van Niekerk · J Moore | G van Niekerk | J Moore | 6 | 11.0 | 1 |
| 5 | 0 | GIANT TURTLE SR/TT A Domeyer · A T Millard | A Domeyer | A T Millard | 10 | 61.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 0 | TASHIDELEK Closed strongly CP/TT Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 4 | 2.8 | 2 |
| 7 | 0 | XIANG BAI QI J Moreira · D E Ferraris | J Moreira | D E Ferraris | 1 | 3.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 8 | 0 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT Led early H K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 5 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 9 | 0 | TANGMERE Closed strongly V/XB K Teetan · C Fownes | K Teetan | C Fownes | 9 | 10.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 10 | 0 | DEFINING MOMENT Closed strongly B R Bayliss · C Fownes | R Bayliss | C Fownes | 12 | 18.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 11 | 0 | MARZOUQ P B Shinn · J Size | B Shinn | J Size | 11 | 65.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 12 | 0 | DRAGON COMMANDER B L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 8 | 120.0 | 15-1/4 |
| — | 0 | JOLLY GENE H T Mo · A S Cruz | H T Mo | A S Cruz | — | — | — |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 5 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-16 was Class 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. OWNERS' STAR, ridden by N Callan and trained by C S Shum, won by 1/2, with CROWN AVENUE second and RULE THEE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.8 favourite TASHIDELEK finished 6th.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | CROWN AVENUE | 27.0% | 3.70 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | TASHIDELEK | 19.1% | 5.23 | 6 |
| 3 | 0 | XIANG BAI QI | 18.0% | 5.57 | 7 |
| 4 | 0 | DEFINING MOMENT | 8.6% | 11.66 | 10 |
| 5 | 0 | TANGMERE | 6.3% | 15.78 | 9 |
| 6 | 0 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT | 5.8% | 17.38 | 8 |
| 7 | 0 | HUANGSHAN | 5.2% | 19.39 | 4 |
| 8 | 0 | OWNERS' STAR | 3.7% | 26.92 | 1 |
| 9 | 0 | MARZOUQ | 2.0% | 49.63 | 11 |
| 10 | 0 | GIANT TURTLE | 1.8% | 55.74 | 5 |
| 11 | 0 | RULE THEE | 1.6% | 62.05 | 3 |
| 12 | 0 | DRAGON COMMANDER | 0.9% | 106.44 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
8 202.5
PLACE
7 84.5
8 52
9 27
QUINELLA
8,9 939
QUINELLA PLACE
7,8 511
7,9 381
8,9 249.5
TIERCE
8,9,7 39,746
TRIO
7,8,9 7,159
FIRST 4
3,7,8,9 15,574
QUARTET
8,9,7,3 438,202
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A2 —
A3 39.5
All pools (1 more)
4TH DOUBLE
5/8 2,746
5/9 136