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Happy Valley · 2019-10-16

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1650m Course C 10 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-16 was Class 3 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. HIGH REV, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by 3-1/4, with UNIVERSAL GO GO second and HAR HAR HEART third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.39.87
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 HIGH REV Closed strongly B/XB 1.39.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall 5 1.7 3-1/4
2 9 UNIVERSAL GO GO Closed strongly C Y Ho · K W Lui 10 6.7 3-1/4
3 4 HAR HAR HEART Closed strongly R Bayliss · J Size 3 35.0 4
4 5 PARTY TOGETHER Closed strongly H-/SR- H W Lai · L Ho 12 127.0 4-1/2
5 8 ALL YOU KNOW Closed strongly B/H/TT C Schofield · R Gibson 11 14.0 4-1/2
6 11 BABY Led early B M L Yeung · K H Ting 6 35.0 4-3/4
7 6 LOOKING GOOD B G van Niekerk · F C Lor 8 12.0 6-1/4
8 12 THUNDER STOMP B H N Wong · Y S Tsui 4 17.0 6-3/4
9 10 ACCLAIMED LIGHT B M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 2 10.0 10
10 3 EARTH TRILOGY XB N Callan · J Moore 7 8.0 21-1/4
1 ARCADA K H Chan · A T Millard
2 WIN WIN B Shinn · T P Yung

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HIGH REV2. UNIVERSAL GO GO+3.25L3. HAR HAR HEART+4L4. PARTY TOGETHER+4.5L5. ALL YOU KNOW+4.5L6. BABY+4.75L7. LOOKING GOOD+6.25L8. THUNDER STOMP+6.75L9. ACCLAIMED LIGHT+10L10. EARTH TRILOGY+21.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick HIGH REV (40.6%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 HIGH REV 40.6% 2.47 1
2 6 LOOKING GOOD 12.3% 8.12 7
3 10 ACCLAIMED LIGHT 12.1% 8.26 9
4 9 UNIVERSAL GO GO 11.9% 8.40 2
5 8 ALL YOU KNOW 7.2% 13.93 5
6 3 EARTH TRILOGY 5.3% 19.03 10
7 12 THUNDER STOMP 4.4% 22.57 8
8 4 HAR HAR HEART 2.7% 37.20 3
9 11 BABY 2.7% 37.64 6
10 5 PARTY TOGETHER 0.9% 111.73 4
HIGH REV — wonLOOKING GOODACCLAIMED LIGHTUNIVERSAL GO GOALL YOU KNOWEARTH TRILOGYTHUNDER STOMPHAR HAR HEARTBABYPARTY TOGETHER

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 17.5

PLACE

4 66

7 10.5

9 16.5

QUINELLA

7,9 53

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 103.5

4,9 264

7,9 23.5

TIERCE

7,9,4 1,383

TRIO

4,7,9 434

FIRST 4

4,5,7,9 4,361

QUARTET

7,9,4,5 31,649

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 17.5

All pools (3 more)

7TH DOUBLE

12/1,2,7 86.5

12/9 78.5

SIX UP

3,11/5,8/8,9/3,12/1,12/1,2,7,9 128,722

3 [K Teetan]

TREBLE

3/12/1,2,7 3,020

3/12/9 2,550