Happy Valley · 2019-10-16
Race 6
Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-16 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY WARRIOR, ridden by N Callan and trained by J Moore, won by 3/4, with FOCUS second and HOLEE MONEY third. The 4.3 favourite LADY FIRST finished 4th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | HAPPY WARRIOR CP 1.10.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 11 | 28.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 12 | FOCUS G van Niekerk · P F Yiu | G van Niekerk | P F Yiu | 2 | 11.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 9 | HOLEE MONEY K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 4 | 6.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | LADY FIRST TT Z Purton · K H Ting | Z Purton | K H Ting | 9 | 4.3 | 3/4 |
| 5 | 2 | CONFUCIUS DAY B/TT J Moreira · C W Chang | J Moreira | C W Chang | 12 | 7.8 | 3/4 |
| 6 | 8 | NICE KICK PC H N Wong · J Size | H N Wong | J Size | 1 | 26.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 7 | 11 | COMPASSION STAR M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 10 | 8.1 | 1-1/4 |
| 8 | 5 | EXCEPTIONAL DESIRE V-/B1 C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 5 | 26.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 9 | 10 | LIGHTNING STEED SR A Domeyer · C Fownes | A Domeyer | C Fownes | 3 | 8.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | MY POWER H/TT M F Poon · C S Shum | M F Poon | C S Shum | 7 | 11.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 11 | 6 | MASTER GALAXY P- L Hewitson · Y S Tsui | L Hewitson | Y S Tsui | 6 | 48.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 12 | 4 | GENEROUS HEART XB/H2/V2 B Shinn · C H Yip | B Shinn | C H Yip | 8 | 7.1 | 4-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | CONFUCIUS DAY | 28.8% | 3.47 | 5 |
| 2 | 8 | NICE KICK | 14.7% | 6.78 | 6 |
| 3 | 9 | HOLEE MONEY | 14.3% | 6.98 | 3 |
| 4 | 10 | LIGHTNING STEED | 9.3% | 10.73 | 9 |
| 5 | 1 | LADY FIRST | 9.1% | 10.94 | 4 |
| 6 | 11 | COMPASSION STAR | 6.0% | 16.74 | 7 |
| 7 | 7 | MY POWER | 4.6% | 21.95 | 10 |
| 8 | 3 | HAPPY WARRIOR | 4.5% | 22.05 | 1 |
| 9 | 4 | GENEROUS HEART | 4.3% | 23.38 | 12 |
| 10 | 6 | MASTER GALAXY | 1.7% | 59.49 | 11 |
| 11 | 5 | EXCEPTIONAL DESIRE | 1.6% | 63.69 | 8 |
| 12 | 12 | FOCUS | 1.0% | 95.84 | 2 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
3 288.5
PLACE
3 76
9 20.5
12 36
QUINELLA
3,12 1,899
QUINELLA PLACE
3,9 346.5
3,12 520
9,12 141.5
TIERCE
3,12,9 29,778
TRIO
3,9,12 3,855
FIRST 4
1,3,9,12 4,040
QUARTET
3,12,9,1 184,298
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 21
A2 —
All pools (2 more)
5TH DOUBLE
8/3 3,788.5
8/12 433.5
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
5,8,9/7,8,9/Any Combination 145,058