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Happy Valley · 2019-10-16

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1650m Course C 12 runners

Result

Official · 1.40.28
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 RIGHTEOUS MATE Closed strongly 1.40.28 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · A T Millard 7 14.0 2-1/4
2 0 KIRAM Closed strongly A Sanna · D E Ferraris 2 11.0 2-1/4
3 0 ROYAL RACER Closed strongly H/P Z Purton · C Fownes 10 5.1 2-1/4
3 0 BUNDLE OF ENERGY Closed strongly B J Moreira · D J Hall 9 2.6 2-1/4
5 0 MURRAY'S PARTNERS M F Poon · C H Yip 6 18.0 2-3/4
6 0 HO HO FEEL Closed strongly H/XB T H So · C H Yip 4 46.0 3-1/4
7 0 FULL POWER Closed strongly XB U Rispoli · R Gibson 5 22.0 4
8 0 DIAMOND LEGEND V/TT C Y Ho · A S Cruz 12 21.0 4
9 0 CURLING LUXURY Led early H T Mo · Y S Tsui 1 5.0 5
10 0 ELECTRIC LIGHTNING Closed strongly B/TT L Hewitson · D E Ferraris 11 50.0 5-1/4
11 0 FAITHFUL TRINITY H/P/TT N Callan · R Gibson 8 12.0 5-1/4
12 0 MASTER ROMAN K C Leung · W Y So 3 61.0 8

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2019-10-16 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. RIGHTEOUS MATE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by A T Millard, won by 2-1/4, with KIRAM second and ROYAL RACER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.6 favourite BUNDLE OF ENERGY finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. RIGHTEOUS MATE—2. KIRAM+2.25L3. ROYAL RACER+2.25L3. BUNDLE OF ENERGY+2.25L5. MURRAY'S PARTNERS+2.75L6. HO HO FEEL+3.25L7. FULL POWER+4L8. DIAMOND LEGEND+4L9. CURLING LUXURY+5L10. ELECTRIC LIGHTNING+5.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick BUNDLE OF ENERGY (28.0%) finished 3rd — the winner RIGHTEOUS MATE was rated #6. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 BUNDLE OF ENERGY 28.0% 3.57 3
2 0 ROYAL RACER 14.7% 6.79 3
3 0 CURLING LUXURY 13.4% 7.46 9
4 0 DIAMOND LEGEND 9.4% 10.69 8
5 0 MURRAY'S PARTNERS 7.9% 12.63 5
6 0 RIGHTEOUS MATE 6.9% 14.46 1
7 0 FAITHFUL TRINITY 5.7% 17.51 11
8 0 KIRAM 5.0% 19.97 2
9 0 FULL POWER 4.8% 20.95 7
10 0 ELECTRIC LIGHTNING 1.5% 67.67 10
11 0 MASTER ROMAN 1.4% 70.52 12
12 0 HO HO FEEL 1.3% 79.29 6
BUNDLE OF ENERGYROYAL RACERCURLING LUXURYDIAMOND LEGENDMURRAY'S PARTNERSRIGHTEOUS MATE — wonFAITHFUL TRINITYKIRAMFULL POWERELECTRIC LIGHTNINGMASTER ROMANHO HO FEEL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

11 147

PLACE

3 26

6 10.1

11 37

12 10.1

QUINELLA

3,11 805

QUINELLA PLACE

3,6 41

3,11 224

3,12 29.5

6,11 40

6,12 11.5

11,12 27

TIERCE

11,3,6 3,983

11,3,12 2,652

TRIO

3,6,11 571

3,11,12 367

FIRST 4

3,6,11,12 568

QUARTET

11,3,6,12 9,550

11,3,12,6 9,263

2ND DOUBLE

7/3 382.5

7/11 2,822.5

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 —

A3 37