Sha Tin · 2019-11-17

Race 6

Group 2 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course B 7 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2019-11-17 was Group 2 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. WAIKUKU, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 3/4, with KA YING STAR second and BEAUTY GENERATION third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 1.3 favourite BEAUTY GENERATION finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.32.89

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	WAIKUKU Closed strongly 1.32.89 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size	J Moreira	J Size	7	123 lb	4.3	3/4
2	5	KA YING STAR CP/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz	K Teetan	A S Cruz	4	123 lb	8.4	3/4
3	1	BEAUTY GENERATION Led early B/TT Z Purton · J Moore	Z Purton	J Moore	1	128 lb	1.3	1-3/4
4	4	SIMPLY BRILLIANT Closed strongly XB/CP1 A Badel · F C Lor	A Badel	F C Lor	2	123 lb	56.0	2
5	3	CITRON SPIRIT Closed strongly H/XB M F Poon · P F Yiu	M F Poon	P F Yiu	6	123 lb	62.0	2-1/4
6	7	NOT USUAL TALENT H Bowman · T P Yung	H Bowman	T P Yung	3	123 lb	21.0	5
7	6	ELUSIVE STATE TT S De Sousa · A T Millard	S De Sousa	A T Millard	5	123 lb	31.0	6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick BEAUTY GENERATION (49.7%) finished 3rd — the winner WAIKUKU was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	1	BEAUTY GENERATION	49.7%	2.01	3	1.3
2	2	WAIKUKU	14.8%	6.76	1	4.3
3	7	NOT USUAL TALENT	14.4%	6.96	6	21.0
4	5	KA YING STAR	10.1%	9.88	2	8.4
5	6	ELUSIVE STATE	6.4%	15.73	7	31.0
6	3	CITRON SPIRIT	3.0%	33.57	5	62.0
7	4	SIMPLY BRILLIANT	1.7%	60.45	4	56.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 43.5

PLACE

1 10.1

2 12

5 14.5

QUINELLA

2,5 146.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 14

1,5 17

2,5 24

TIERCE

2,5,1 502

TRIO

1,2,5 25

FIRST 4

1,2,4,5 80

QUARTET

2,5,1,4 2,726

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 29

A1 —

All pools (3 more)

5TH DOUBLE

14/2 109

14/5 64

TRIPLE TRIO

3,7,14/5,6,14/1,2,5 364,580

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,7,14/5,6,14/Any Combination 7,291

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