Sha Tin · 2019-11-17
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2019-11-17 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SIMPLY SPECTACULAR, ridden by Z Purton and trained by D J Hall, won by N, with LUCKY GUY second and TRIPLE TRIPLE third. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | SIMPLY SPECTACULAR H1 1.09.63 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 7 | 2.9 | N |
| 2 | 13 | LUCKY GUY TT N Callan · C H Yip | N Callan | C H Yip | 13 | 19.0 | N |
| 3 | 10 | TRIPLE TRIPLE H Bowman · F C Lor | H Bowman | F C Lor | 4 | 10.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 14 | WONDER EXPRESS B-/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 2 | 15.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 4 | BRIGHT KID B/XB S De Sousa · D J Whyte | S De Sousa | D J Whyte | 3 | 7.7 | 2 |
| 6 | 6 | WOOD ON FIRE H G van Niekerk · L Ho | G van Niekerk | L Ho | 1 | 5.3 | 2 |
| 7 | 1 | KA YING EXCELLENT TT1 K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 10 | 28.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 3 | GUNNAR B- J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 14 | 5.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | INVALUABLE A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 9 | 44.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | BINGO B/TT M Chadwick · J Moore | M Chadwick | J Moore | 6 | 25.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | MIGHTY GIANT H W Lai · P F Yiu | H W Lai | P F Yiu | 12 | 106.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | XIANG LAN QI H-/TT- K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 11 | 231.0 | 8 |
| 13 | 11 | WINNER APPROACH H-/TT H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 5 | 274.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 14 | 5 | VOYAGE STAR V/TT2 H N Wong · T P Yung | H N Wong | T P Yung | 8 | 39.0 | 8-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | BRIGHT KID | 20.4% | 4.91 | 5 |
| 2 | 3 | GUNNAR | 16.4% | 6.11 | 8 |
| 3 | 6 | WOOD ON FIRE | 16.2% | 6.18 | 6 |
| 4 | 9 | SIMPLY SPECTACULAR | 15.5% | 6.44 | 1 |
| 5 | 1 | KA YING EXCELLENT | 7.1% | 14.15 | 7 |
| 6 | 2 | BINGO | 5.1% | 19.50 | 10 |
| 7 | 14 | WONDER EXPRESS | 5.1% | 19.59 | 4 |
| 8 | 13 | LUCKY GUY | 3.4% | 29.51 | 2 |
| 9 | 7 | INVALUABLE | 3.1% | 32.51 | 9 |
| 10 | 5 | VOYAGE STAR | 2.7% | 36.84 | 14 |
| 11 | 8 | MIGHTY GIANT | 2.0% | 50.88 | 11 |
| 12 | 10 | TRIPLE TRIPLE | 1.9% | 51.84 | 3 |
| 13 | 11 | WINNER APPROACH | 0.6% | 162.76 | 13 |
| 14 | 12 | XIANG LAN QI | 0.6% | 172.27 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 29
PLACE
9 14
10 35
13 34
QUINELLA
9,13 329
QUINELLA PLACE
9,10 95
9,13 106
10,13 315
TIERCE
9,13,10 5,178
TRIO
9,10,13 1,279
FIRST 4
9,10,13,14 2,304
QUARTET
9,13,10,14 38,720
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 19
A2 —