沙田 · 2019-11-17
第 1場
2019-11-17沙田第1場，Class 4，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、D J Hall訓練的SIMPLY SPECTACULAR勝出，贏出N。LUCKY GUY獲得亞軍；TRIPLE TRIPLE獲得季軍。頭馬以2.9倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | SIMPLY SPECTACULAR H1 1.09.63 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 7 | 2.9 | N |
| 2 | 13 | LUCKY GUY TT N Callan · C H Yip | N Callan | C H Yip | 13 | 19.0 | N |
| 3 | 10 | TRIPLE TRIPLE H Bowman · F C Lor | H Bowman | F C Lor | 4 | 10.0 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 14 | WONDER EXPRESS B-/TT M L Yeung · K H Ting | M L Yeung | K H Ting | 2 | 15.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 5 | 4 | BRIGHT KID B/XB S De Sousa · D J Whyte | S De Sousa | D J Whyte | 3 | 7.7 | 2 |
| 6 | 6 | WOOD ON FIRE H G van Niekerk · L Ho | G van Niekerk | L Ho | 1 | 5.3 | 2 |
| 7 | 1 | KA YING EXCELLENT TT1 K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 10 | 28.0 | 3 |
| 8 | 3 | GUNNAR B- J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 14 | 5.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 9 | 7 | INVALUABLE A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 9 | 44.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | BINGO B/TT M Chadwick · J Moore | M Chadwick | J Moore | 6 | 25.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 11 | 8 | MIGHTY GIANT H W Lai · P F Yiu | H W Lai | P F Yiu | 12 | 106.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 12 | 12 | XIANG LAN QI H-/TT- K C Leung · K L Man | K C Leung | K L Man | 11 | 231.0 | 8 |
| 13 | 11 | WINNER APPROACH H-/TT H T Mo · C W Chang | H T Mo | C W Chang | 5 | 274.0 | 8-1/2 |
| 14 | 5 | VOYAGE STAR V/TT2 H N Wong · T P Yung | H N Wong | T P Yung | 8 | 39.0 | 8-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | BRIGHT KID | 20.4% | 4.91 | 5 |
| 2 | 3 | GUNNAR | 16.4% | 6.11 | 8 |
| 3 | 6 | WOOD ON FIRE | 16.2% | 6.18 | 6 |
| 4 | 9 | SIMPLY SPECTACULAR | 15.5% | 6.44 | 1 |
| 5 | 1 | KA YING EXCELLENT | 7.1% | 14.15 | 7 |
| 6 | 2 | BINGO | 5.1% | 19.50 | 10 |
| 7 | 14 | WONDER EXPRESS | 5.1% | 19.59 | 4 |
| 8 | 13 | LUCKY GUY | 3.4% | 29.51 | 2 |
| 9 | 7 | INVALUABLE | 3.1% | 32.51 | 9 |
| 10 | 5 | VOYAGE STAR | 2.7% | 36.84 | 14 |
| 11 | 8 | MIGHTY GIANT | 2.0% | 50.88 | 11 |
| 12 | 10 | TRIPLE TRIPLE | 1.9% | 51.84 | 3 |
| 13 | 11 | WINNER APPROACH | 0.6% | 162.76 | 13 |
| 14 | 12 | XIANG LAN QI | 0.6% | 172.27 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
9 29
PLACE
9 14
10 35
13 34
QUINELLA
9,13 329
QUINELLA PLACE
9,10 95
9,13 106
10,13 315
TIERCE
9,13,10 5,178
TRIO
9,10,13 1,279
FIRST 4
9,10,13,14 2,304
QUARTET
9,13,10,14 38,720
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 19
A2 —