沙田 · 2019-11-17
第 9場
2019-11-17沙田第9場，Class 2，途程1200米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由C Y Ho策騎、W Y So訓練的MR CROISSANT勝出，贏出1。WATER DIVINER獲得亞軍；PERFECT MATCH獲得季軍。3.0倍大熱門BIG PARTY跑獲第5名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | MR CROISSANT CP 1.08.56 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Y Ho · W Y So | C Y Ho | W Y So | 2 | 4.2 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | WATER DIVINER B/H/TT M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 5 | 33.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 12 | PERFECT MATCH B/TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 13 | 7.8 | 1 |
| 4 | 1 | BIG TIME BABY M Chadwick · K L Man | M Chadwick | K L Man | 4 | 12.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | BIG PARTY Z Purton · F C Lor | Z Purton | F C Lor | 1 | 3.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 6 | 2 | RAGING STORM PC C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 10 | 25.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | AEROHAPPINESS J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 9 | 6.5 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 5 | HIGH FIVE A Sanna · A T Millard | A Sanna | A T Millard | 3 | 131.0 | 5 |
| 9 | 14 | PRANCE DRAGON B A Badel · A T Millard | A Badel | A T Millard | 6 | 35.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 10 | 4 | VOYAGE WARRIOR XB1/TT- K Teetan · P F Yiu | K Teetan | P F Yiu | 12 | 8.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 9 | SUNSET WATCH XB1/TT1 U Rispoli · C H Yip | U Rispoli | C H Yip | 14 | 269.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 8 | BUTTERFIELD XB1/TT S De Sousa · C S Shum | S De Sousa | C S Shum | 7 | 151.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 13 | 13 | RED DESERT R Bayliss · J Size | R Bayliss | J Size | 8 | 69.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 14 | 10 | BEAUTY AMIGO CP1 M F Poon · J Moore | M F Poon | J Moore | 11 | 40.0 | 10-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 7 | BIG PARTY | 27.8% | 3.60 | 5 |
| 2 | 4 | VOYAGE WARRIOR | 17.1% | 5.85 | 10 |
| 3 | 11 | MR CROISSANT | 16.7% | 5.98 | 1 |
| 4 | 6 | AEROHAPPINESS | 12.2% | 8.23 | 7 |
| 5 | 12 | PERFECT MATCH | 10.2% | 9.82 | 3 |
| 6 | 1 | BIG TIME BABY | 2.9% | 34.11 | 4 |
| 7 | 2 | RAGING STORM | 2.7% | 37.27 | 6 |
| 8 | 10 | BEAUTY AMIGO | 2.3% | 43.18 | 14 |
| 9 | 3 | WATER DIVINER | 2.0% | 50.24 | 2 |
| 10 | 14 | PRANCE DRAGON | 1.9% | 53.83 | 9 |
| 11 | 13 | RED DESERT | 1.3% | 77.57 | 13 |
| 12 | 8 | BUTTERFIELD | 1.2% | 83.60 | 12 |
| 13 | 9 | SUNSET WATCH | 0.9% | 107.55 | 11 |
| 14 | 5 | HIGH FIVE | 0.8% | 118.67 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 42
PLACE
3 72.5
11 15.5
12 23.5
QUINELLA
3,11 513.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,11 161
3,12 320
11,12 52
TIERCE
11,3,12 6,949
TRIO
3,11,12 1,112
FIRST 4
1,3,11,12 2,306
QUARTET
11,3,12,1 46,795
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 17.5
A3 —
全部彩池（另 1 項）
8TH DOUBLE
9,14/3 109.5
9,14/11 124.5