沙田 · 2019-11-17
第 5場
2019-11-17沙田第5場，Class 3，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由S De Sousa策騎、A T Millard訓練的GIFT OF LIFELINE勝出，贏出1/2。STAR OF YUEN LONG獲得亞軍；PRIVATE ROCKET獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。頭馬以2.7倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14 | GIFT OF LIFELINE 後段發力 B 1.21.37 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） S De Sousa · A T Millard | S De Sousa | A T Millard | 6 | 2.7 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 6 | STAR OF YUEN LONG 早段領放 C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 2 | 9.9 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | PRIVATE ROCKET B-/XB/CP2 A Sanna · D J Whyte | A Sanna | D J Whyte | 1 | 12.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 3 | FOLLOW ME 後段發力 TT J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 10 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | WAR ROOM H T Mo · K H Ting | H T Mo | K H Ting | 4 | 9.7 | 2-3/4 |
| 6 | 9 | WORLD FAMOUS 後段發力 CP-/H-/XB1/TT- G van Niekerk · P F Yiu | G van Niekerk | P F Yiu | 8 | 7.2 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 13 | CLASSIC POSH 後段發力 H1 M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 12 | 10.0 | 4 |
| 8 | 7 | GREEN MOUNTAIN 後段發力 H/TT A Badel · C S Shum | A Badel | C S Shum | 11 | 53.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 2 | WINNING DELIGHT B1 B Shinn · C Fownes | B Shinn | C Fownes | 14 | 19.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 11 | CALIFORNIA TURBO B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 7 | 19.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 11 | 12 | PERFECT PAIR C Schofield · W Y So | C Schofield | W Y So | 5 | 10.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 12 | 8 | LIGHT MY DAY R Bayliss · C H Yip | R Bayliss | C H Yip | 9 | 164.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 13 | 10 | GRATWICK 後段發力 TT M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 13 | 87.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 14 | 4 | HOME MADE B1/TT1 N Callan · Y S Tsui | N Callan | Y S Tsui | 3 | 222.0 | 6-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | FOLLOW ME | 24.6% | 4.06 | 4 |
| 2 | 14 | GIFT OF LIFELINE | 13.5% | 7.40 | 1 |
| 3 | 9 | WORLD FAMOUS | 9.6% | 10.40 | 6 |
| 4 | 2 | WINNING DELIGHT | 9.0% | 11.14 | 9 |
| 5 | 11 | CALIFORNIA TURBO | 7.4% | 13.58 | 10 |
| 6 | 1 | WAR ROOM | 7.1% | 14.14 | 5 |
| 7 | 12 | PERFECT PAIR | 5.9% | 16.81 | 11 |
| 8 | 13 | CLASSIC POSH | 5.5% | 18.14 | 7 |
| 9 | 4 | HOME MADE | 4.2% | 23.75 | 14 |
| 10 | 6 | STAR OF YUEN LONG | 4.2% | 23.85 | 2 |
| 11 | 5 | PRIVATE ROCKET | 3.2% | 31.51 | 3 |
| 12 | 10 | GRATWICK | 2.1% | 46.89 | 13 |
| 13 | 7 | GREEN MOUNTAIN | 2.0% | 49.78 | 8 |
| 14 | 8 | LIGHT MY DAY | 1.6% | 60.74 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
14 27
PLACE
5 32
6 28.5
14 15
QUINELLA
6,14 142.5
QUINELLA PLACE
5,6 194
5,14 64
6,14 64.5
TIERCE
14,6,5 2,325
TRIO
5,6,14 465
FIRST 4
3,5,6,14 1,603
QUARTET
14,6,5,3 25,861
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 22
A2 —
全部彩池（另 1 項）
4TH DOUBLE
3/6 116.5
3/14 256