沙田 · 2019-11-17
第 10場
2019-11-17沙田第10場，Class 2，途程1800米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由C Schofield策騎、J Size訓練的NICCONI EXPRESS勝出，贏出1/2。CHEFANO獲得亞軍；HELENE LEADINGSTAR獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.1倍大熱門TIANCHI MONSTER跑獲第6名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | NICCONI EXPRESS 後段發力 P 1.47.22 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 11 | 5.1 | 1/2 |
| 2 | 13 | CHEFANO 後段發力 CP C Y Ho · J Moore | C Y Ho | J Moore | 13 | 6.0 | 1/2 |
| 3 | 4 | HELENE LEADINGSTAR 後段發力 XB/TT G van Niekerk · A S Cruz | G van Niekerk | A S Cruz | 7 | 9.9 | 3/4 |
| 4 | 1 | SAVVY SIX 後段發力 H/PC/TT M L Yeung · A S Cruz | M L Yeung | A S Cruz | 9 | 25.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 5 | 7 | DANCES WITH DRAGON 後段發力 H/P/TT A Sanna · L Ho | A Sanna | L Ho | 12 | 37.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 6 | 3 | TIANCHI MONSTER 後段發力 H Z Purton · W Y So | Z Purton | W Y So | 4 | 3.1 | 1-3/4 |
| 7 | 11 | CORDYCEPS B R Bayliss · K W Lui | R Bayliss | K W Lui | 6 | 20.0 | 2 |
| 8 | 2 | RUTHVEN 早段領放 H/TT K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 2 | 30.0 | 3 |
| 9 | 9 | ENRICHMENT B L Hewitson · J Size | L Hewitson | J Size | 1 | 15.0 | 3 |
| 10 | 6 | CLASSIC BEAUTY B N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 10 | 61.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 11 | 10 | THE HULK 後段發力 PC-/XB J Moreira · C Fownes | J Moreira | C Fownes | 14 | 15.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 12 | 14 | EASY GO EASY WIN SR-/XB/B2 A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 5 | 30.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 13 | 8 | CIRCUIT NUMBER TWO B1/H1/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 8 | 38.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 14 | 5 | RIGHT CHOICE B S De Sousa · F C Lor | S De Sousa | F C Lor | 3 | 13.0 | 6-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 13 | CHEFANO | 15.9% | 6.29 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | TIANCHI MONSTER | 13.1% | 7.62 | 6 |
| 3 | 10 | THE HULK | 12.4% | 8.07 | 11 |
| 4 | 8 | CIRCUIT NUMBER TWO | 8.3% | 11.99 | 13 |
| 5 | 11 | CORDYCEPS | 7.9% | 12.60 | 7 |
| 6 | 5 | RIGHT CHOICE | 7.8% | 12.83 | 14 |
| 7 | 12 | NICCONI EXPRESS | 6.9% | 14.54 | 1 |
| 8 | 4 | HELENE LEADINGSTAR | 5.7% | 17.61 | 3 |
| 9 | 2 | RUTHVEN | 5.4% | 18.43 | 8 |
| 10 | 1 | SAVVY SIX | 5.3% | 18.91 | 4 |
| 11 | 6 | CLASSIC BEAUTY | 4.0% | 25.14 | 10 |
| 12 | 14 | EASY GO EASY WIN | 3.3% | 30.51 | 12 |
| 13 | 7 | DANCES WITH DRAGON | 2.3% | 42.57 | 5 |
| 14 | 9 | ENRICHMENT | 1.6% | 61.45 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 51.5
PLACE
4 31.5
12 20
13 23.5
QUINELLA
12,13 146
QUINELLA PLACE
4,12 108
4,13 95.5
12,13 54
TIERCE
12,13,4 1,704
TRIO
4,12,13 399
FIRST 4
1,4,12,13 1,160
QUARTET
12,13,4,1 18,874
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 20.5
A2 —
全部彩池（另 4 項）
3RD DOUBLE TRIO
3,11,12/4,12,13 52,751
9TH DOUBLE
11/12 230
11/13 32
SIX UP
6,14/2,5/1,8/4,9,14/3,11/12,13 3,349
14/2/1/9,14/11/12 23,373
1 [Z Purton] —
TREBLE
9,14/11/12 860
9,14/11/13 113