沙田 · 2019-11-17
第 4場
2019-11-17沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD。由Z Purton策騎、K L Man訓練的ULTIMATE GLORY勝出，贏出2-1/2。SUNSHINE UNIVERSE獲得亞軍；FANTASTIC SHOW獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.3倍大熱門FUN TIMES跑獲第4名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | ULTIMATE GLORY 後段發力 V 1.22.06 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · K L Man | Z Purton | K L Man | 1 | 7.1 | 2-1/2 |
| 2 | 7 | SUNSHINE UNIVERSE 早段領放 B A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 13 | 19.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 3 | 14 | FANTASTIC SHOW 後段發力 H W Lai · Y S Tsui | H W Lai | Y S Tsui | 10 | 10.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 4 | 9 | FUN TIMES 後段發力 B K Teetan · A T Millard | K Teetan | A T Millard | 4 | 3.3 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 1 | SONIC FIGHTER B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | 2 | 3.9 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 12 | FLYING GODSPELL SR L Hewitson · K H Ting | L Hewitson | K H Ting | 5 | 38.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 7 | 6 | CENTRAL EXPRESS 後段發力 B1 J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 3 | 13.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 13 | THE FULL BLOOM H T Mo · C H Yip | H T Mo | C H Yip | 8 | 61.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 11 | CHAPARRAL STAR 後段發力 TT H N Wong · C Fownes | H N Wong | C Fownes | 9 | 207.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 2 | GOD OF DRAGON H/TT S De Sousa · A S Cruz | S De Sousa | A S Cruz | 14 | 9.6 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 4 | SMART ROCKET CP N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 6 | 30.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 5 | SPEEDY DRAGON 後段發力 M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 11 | 45.0 | 7 |
| 13 | 10 | BLAZING PARTNERS U Rispoli · D E Ferraris | U Rispoli | D E Ferraris | 12 | 12.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 14 | 8 | VIGOR CHAMP M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 7 | 62.0 | 10-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | FUN TIMES | 22.7% | 4.41 | 4 |
| 2 | 1 | SONIC FIGHTER | 10.2% | 9.77 | 5 |
| 3 | 6 | CENTRAL EXPRESS | 9.4% | 10.65 | 7 |
| 4 | 4 | SMART ROCKET | 8.9% | 11.28 | 11 |
| 5 | 10 | BLAZING PARTNERS | 8.6% | 11.68 | 13 |
| 6 | 7 | SUNSHINE UNIVERSE | 8.4% | 11.88 | 2 |
| 7 | 2 | GOD OF DRAGON | 7.6% | 13.23 | 10 |
| 8 | 3 | ULTIMATE GLORY | 6.7% | 15.00 | 1 |
| 9 | 5 | SPEEDY DRAGON | 5.3% | 18.89 | 12 |
| 10 | 12 | FLYING GODSPELL | 3.0% | 33.23 | 6 |
| 11 | 13 | THE FULL BLOOM | 2.9% | 33.90 | 8 |
| 12 | 14 | FANTASTIC SHOW | 2.8% | 35.77 | 3 |
| 13 | 8 | VIGOR CHAMP | 1.9% | 52.92 | 14 |
| 14 | 11 | CHAPARRAL STAR | 1.7% | 59.81 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
3 71.5
PLACE
3 21.5
7 44
14 31
QUINELLA
3,7 602.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,7 187
3,14 129
7,14 245.5
TIERCE
3,7,14 10,982
TRIO
3,7,14 1,465
FIRST 4
3,7,9,14 1,214
QUARTET
3,7,14,9 40,983
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
8,12,14/3,7,14 427,723
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 22.5
3RD DOUBLE
14/3 687
14/7 178.5