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Sha Tin · 2019-11-17

Race 3

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2019-11-17 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SHINING GEM, ridden by G van Niekerk and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-1/4, with BIG FORTUNE second and HIGH RISE SOLDIER third. The 2.9 favourite BIG FORTUNE finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.08.79
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 14 SHINING GEM CP 1.08.79 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) G van Niekerk · P F Yiu 11 6.9 1-1/4
2 12 BIG FORTUNE B/XB K H Chan · D J Whyte 3 2.9 1-1/4
3 8 HIGH RISE SOLDIER B1/H1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 51.0 2-3/4
4 6 LOCKHEED B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 13 4.2 2-3/4
5 2 SEERITE DRAGON L Hewitson · D E Ferraris 5 129.0 4-3/4
6 7 BE READY H Bowman · F C Lor 10 18.0 6
7 3 HELLO BEAUTY B/TT S De Sousa · J Moore 4 10.0 6-1/4
8 13 DIAMOND BRILLIANT CP/TT K Teetan · T P Yung 6 7.6 6-3/4
9 9 BLOTTING PAPER H1 R Bayliss · R Gibson 7 71.0 6-3/4
10 10 TAILOR MADE H N Wong · C W Chang 2 342.0 7-1/4
11 4 TEAM SPIRIT B/TT C Schofield · W Y So 14 22.0 9-1/4
12 5 HERCULES M F Poon · C H Yip 1 109.0 11
13 1 HANDSOME BO BO CP- A Badel · K L Man 9 13.0 11-1/2
14 11 GRADE ONE B K C Leung · P O'Sullivan 8 23.0 12-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SHINING GEM2. BIG FORTUNE+1.25L3. HIGH RISE SOLDIER+2.75L4. LOCKHEED+2.75L5. SEERITE DRAGON+4.75L6. BE READY+6L7. HELLO BEAUTY+6.25L8. DIAMOND BRILLIANT+6.75L9. BLOTTING PAPER+6.75L10. TAILOR MADE+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick BIG FORTUNE (19.6%) finished 2nd — the winner SHINING GEM was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 12 BIG FORTUNE 19.6% 5.11 2
2 6 LOCKHEED 19.1% 5.25 4
3 13 DIAMOND BRILLIANT 13.0% 7.71 8
4 7 BE READY 10.3% 9.67 6
5 14 SHINING GEM 7.7% 13.06 1
6 3 HELLO BEAUTY 7.3% 13.79 7
7 11 GRADE ONE 6.3% 15.96 14
8 4 TEAM SPIRIT 4.5% 22.15 11
9 1 HANDSOME BO BO 3.8% 26.51 13
10 8 HIGH RISE SOLDIER 3.8% 26.57 3
11 9 BLOTTING PAPER 1.9% 51.75 9
12 5 HERCULES 1.3% 75.12 12
13 10 TAILOR MADE 0.8% 119.73 10
14 2 SEERITE DRAGON 0.7% 136.05 5
BIG FORTUNELOCKHEEDDIAMOND BRILLIANTBE READYSHINING GEM — wonHELLO BEAUTYGRADE ONETEAM SPIRITHANDSOME BO BOHIGH RISE SOLDIERBLOTTING PAPERHERCULESTAILOR MADESEERITE DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

14 69.5

PLACE

8 121.5

12 14

14 27.5

QUINELLA

12,14 128.5

QUINELLA PLACE

8,12 295.5

8,14 637.5

12,14 55.5

TIERCE

14,12,8 13,070

TRIO

8,12,14 2,514

FIRST 4

6,8,12,14 2,486

QUARTET

14,12,8,6 87,002

2ND DOUBLE

12/12 11

12/14 260

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 27

A3

A1