Sha Tin · 2019-11-17
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2019-11-17 was Group 2 over 2000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. EXULTANT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/4, with FURORE second and SOUTHERN LEGEND third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 1.9 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | EXULTANT Closed strongly XB/TT 1.59.77 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 3 | 1.9 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 8 | FURORE Closed strongly B H Bowman · F C Lor | H Bowman | F C Lor | 4 | 16.0 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 4 | SOUTHERN LEGEND V A Sanna · C Fownes | A Sanna | C Fownes | 5 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 3 | RISE HIGH Closed strongly XB C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 8 | 3.9 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 9 | HO HO KHAN Closed strongly A Badel · D J Hall | A Badel | D J Hall | 9 | 53.0 | 6 |
| 6 | 7 | EAGLE WAY Closed strongly B/TT G van Niekerk · J Moore | G van Niekerk | J Moore | 6 | 20.0 | 9 |
| 7 | 6 | TIME WARP Led early TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 2 | 18.0 | 14-1/2 |
| 8 | 5 | DARK DREAM CP J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 7 | 26.0 | 21-1/4 |
| 9 | 2 | GLORIOUS FOREVER B/TT S De Sousa · F C Lor | S De Sousa | F C Lor | 1 | 7.2 | 22-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | EXULTANT | 47.5% | 2.10 | 1 |
| 2 | 6 | TIME WARP | 11.2% | 8.90 | 7 |
| 3 | 5 | DARK DREAM | 11.2% | 8.91 | 8 |
| 4 | 3 | RISE HIGH | 8.9% | 11.18 | 4 |
| 5 | 4 | SOUTHERN LEGEND | 7.3% | 13.76 | 3 |
| 6 | 2 | GLORIOUS FOREVER | 5.7% | 17.50 | 9 |
| 7 | 7 | EAGLE WAY | 3.0% | 32.86 | 6 |
| 8 | 8 | FURORE | 2.9% | 35.05 | 2 |
| 9 | 9 | HO HO KHAN | 2.2% | 45.42 | 5 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 19
PLACE
1 11
4 28
8 29.5
QUINELLA
1,8 130.5
QUINELLA PLACE
1,4 41.5
1,8 52
4,8 142.5
TIERCE
1,8,4 1,018
TRIO
1,4,8 227
FIRST 4
1,3,4,8 176
QUARTET
1,8,4,3 3,110
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
1,2,5/1,4,8 945
All pools (3 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 —
A1 13
6TH DOUBLE
2/1 96
2/8 99
WINNING TRAINER
B2 —
B4 —
B3 —
B1 17.5