Sha Tin · 2019-11-23
Race 1
Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2019-11-23 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. FANTASY, ridden by B Shinn and trained by C S Shum, won by SH, with POWER KING second and SPARKLING STAR third. Victory came as the 4.0 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | FANTASY TT1 1.09.10 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · C S Shum | B Shinn | C S Shum | 6 | 4.0 | SH |
| 2 | 5 | POWER KING H1/TT1 A Sanna · A S Cruz | A Sanna | A S Cruz | 4 | 9.9 | SH |
| 3 | 6 | SPARKLING STAR H1 M F Poon · W Y So | M F Poon | W Y So | 9 | 58.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 8 | NO REGRETS AT ALL A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 1 | 4.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 1 | WINNING FEELING B1 N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 2 | 14.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | BEST FOR YOU B G van Niekerk · Y S Tsui | G van Niekerk | Y S Tsui | 7 | 8.8 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 4 | INCANTO PREPARED B1/TT1 C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 8 | 41.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 8 | 11 | BULB ELITE B U Rispoli · C H Yip | U Rispoli | C H Yip | 10 | 11.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 12 | NICE FANDANGO H/XB H N Wong · C Fownes | H N Wong | C Fownes | 3 | 21.0 | 5 |
| 10 | 7 | TREASURE CHEST H1 H W Lai · P F Yiu | H W Lai | P F Yiu | 11 | 27.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 9 | WONDER WIN TT H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 5 | 58.0 | 8-1/4 |
| 12 | 3 | GOOD SHOT Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 12 | 4.5 | 9-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | GOOD SHOT | 24.0% | 4.17 | 12 |
| 2 | 8 | NO REGRETS AT ALL | 15.6% | 6.40 | 4 |
| 3 | 10 | BEST FOR YOU | 12.0% | 8.33 | 6 |
| 4 | 4 | INCANTO PREPARED | 9.7% | 10.34 | 7 |
| 5 | 11 | BULB ELITE | 7.2% | 13.88 | 8 |
| 6 | 6 | SPARKLING STAR | 5.7% | 17.44 | 3 |
| 7 | 2 | FANTASY | 5.7% | 17.46 | 1 |
| 8 | 1 | WINNING FEELING | 5.4% | 18.61 | 5 |
| 9 | 5 | POWER KING | 5.0% | 20.18 | 2 |
| 10 | 7 | TREASURE CHEST | 4.5% | 22.36 | 10 |
| 11 | 12 | NICE FANDANGO | 3.1% | 32.31 | 9 |
| 12 | 9 | WONDER WIN | 2.1% | 46.65 | 11 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
2 40
PLACE
2 14
5 35
6 137
QUINELLA
2,5 165
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 63.5
2,6 436.5
5,6 870
TIERCE
2,5,6 15,105
TRIO
2,5,6 3,595
FIRST 4
2,5,6,8 2,884
QUARTET
2,5,6,8 67,888
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 17.5