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Sha Tin · 2019-11-23

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 1600m Course C 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2019-11-23 was Class 3 over 1600m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. PRECIOUSSHIP, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by P F Yiu, won by 3/4, with BAND OF BROTHERS second and SMART PATCH third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 2.5 favourite PACKING WARRIOR finished 4th.

Result

Official · 1.33.89
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 PRECIOUSSHIP Closed strongly XB 1.33.89 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · P F Yiu 12 7.8 3/4
2 1 BAND OF BROTHERS Closed strongly A Badel · P O'Sullivan 14 10.0 3/4
3 12 SMART PATCH Closed strongly B H W Lai · K L Man 9 23.0 1-1/4
4 2 PACKING WARRIOR Closed strongly B/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz 6 2.5 1-1/4
5 10 GO BALLISTIC Closed strongly SR N Callan · D E Ferraris 11 168.0 3
6 14 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE Closed strongly XB U Rispoli · C W Chang 3 8.4 3
7 9 FENRIR Closed strongly H/SR1/TT R Bayliss · K H Ting 10 74.0 4-1/4
8 6 FLYING QUEST Closed strongly B M F Poon · D J Hall 13 37.0 4-1/4
9 8 GUY DRAGON XB/TT C Schofield · W Y So 1 5.9 5
10 5 CHARITY GO H B Shinn · C S Shum 5 14.0 6
11 7 WIN WIN B M L Yeung · T P Yung 7 23.0 6-1/4
12 13 LOOKING GOOD B G van Niekerk · F C Lor 4 15.0 7
13 3 SICHUAN DAR B A Sanna · A T Millard 2 44.0 7-1/2
14 11 ENZEMBLE Led early XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 8 119.0 18-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. PRECIOUSSHIP2. BAND OF BROTHERS+0.75L3. SMART PATCH+1.25L4. PACKING WARRIOR+1.25L5. GO BALLISTIC+3L6. RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE+3L7. FENRIR+4.25L8. FLYING QUEST+4.25L9. GUY DRAGON+5L10. CHARITY GO+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick BAND OF BROTHERS (19.9%) finished 2nd — the winner PRECIOUSSHIP was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 BAND OF BROTHERS 19.9% 5.03 2
2 2 PACKING WARRIOR 19.3% 5.19 4
3 8 GUY DRAGON 18.5% 5.41 9
4 13 LOOKING GOOD 7.7% 13.03 12
5 4 PRECIOUSSHIP 7.0% 14.29 1
6 14 RIGHTEOUS DOCTRINE 6.8% 14.65 6
7 12 SMART PATCH 4.9% 20.30 3
8 6 FLYING QUEST 3.6% 27.47 8
9 5 CHARITY GO 3.0% 33.16 10
10 9 FENRIR 2.6% 39.09 7
11 7 WIN WIN 2.4% 41.18 11
12 3 SICHUAN DAR 1.9% 51.55 13
13 10 GO BALLISTIC 1.7% 58.50 5
14 11 ENZEMBLE 0.7% 148.03 14
BAND OF BROTHERSPACKING WARRIORGUY DRAGONLOOKING GOODPRECIOUSSHIP — wonRIGHTEOUS DOCTRINESMART PATCHFLYING QUESTCHARITY GOFENRIRWIN WINSICHUAN DARGO BALLISTICENZEMBLE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 78.5

PLACE

1 31

4 27

12 50.5

QUINELLA

1,4 327

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 122.5

1,12 262.5

4,12 196

TIERCE

4,1,12 8,589

TRIO

1,4,12 304

FIRST 4

1,2,4,12 1,134

QUARTET

4,1,12,2 34,929

3 PICK 1

A2

A1

A3 27.5

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

9/1 74

9/4 392.5