Sha Tin · 2019-11-23
Race 8
Race 8 at Sha Tin on 2019-11-23 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. AQUILA, ridden by C Schofield and trained by K H Ting, won by 2-1/4, with MEGA HEART second and HOLY HEART third. The 2.4 favourite UTOPIA LIFE finished 5th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | AQUILA 1.09.00 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · K H Ting | C Schofield | K H Ting | 9 | 4.1 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 4 | MEGA HEART XB/TT M L Yeung · C W Chang | M L Yeung | C W Chang | 1 | 5.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 3 | HOLY HEART H/TT1 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 11 | 22.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 1 | MOST BEAUTIFUL B/TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 8 | 12.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 7 | UTOPIA LIFE B K H Chan · K L Man | K H Chan | K L Man | 6 | 2.4 | 3-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | FLYING BONUS U Rispoli · C H Yip | U Rispoli | C H Yip | 7 | 34.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 7 | 2 | JUST NOT LISTENING B Z Purton · J Moore | Z Purton | J Moore | 5 | 7.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 8 | 6 | UNITE SPIRIT XB1 L Hewitson · D E Ferraris | L Hewitson | D E Ferraris | 3 | 43.0 | 8 |
| 9 | 5 | SO GLORIOUS H1 H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 4 | 125.0 | 9 |
| 10 | 12 | SMART CHARADE B/H/TT H W Lai · W Y So | H W Lai | W Y So | 10 | 146.0 | 9-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | EXALTATION B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 12 | 157.0 | 10 |
| 12 | 11 | HAPPY VICTORY H T Mo · T P Yung | H T Mo | T P Yung | 2 | 40.0 | 12 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | JUST NOT LISTENING | 22.8% | 4.39 | 7 |
| 2 | 9 | AQUILA | 19.6% | 5.11 | 1 |
| 3 | 7 | UTOPIA LIFE | 18.0% | 5.56 | 5 |
| 4 | 4 | MEGA HEART | 12.0% | 8.35 | 2 |
| 5 | 1 | MOST BEAUTIFUL | 7.0% | 14.22 | 4 |
| 6 | 3 | HOLY HEART | 5.5% | 18.18 | 3 |
| 7 | 11 | HAPPY VICTORY | 4.8% | 20.78 | 12 |
| 8 | 8 | FLYING BONUS | 3.6% | 27.50 | 6 |
| 9 | 12 | SMART CHARADE | 3.1% | 32.51 | 10 |
| 10 | 10 | EXALTATION | 1.6% | 64.41 | 11 |
| 11 | 6 | UNITE SPIRIT | 1.3% | 75.92 | 8 |
| 12 | 5 | SO GLORIOUS | 0.8% | 132.75 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
9 41
PLACE
3 51.5
4 14
9 16
QUINELLA
4,9 115.5
QUINELLA PLACE
3,4 157
3,9 144
4,9 40.5
TIERCE
9,4,3 3,618
TRIO
3,4,9 606
FIRST 4
1,3,4,9 874
QUARTET
9,4,3,1 18,130
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 19.5
All pools (1 more)
7TH DOUBLE
11/4 58
11/9 255