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Sha Tin · 2019-11-23

Race 5

Class 3 GOOD (AWT) 1200m 12 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2019-11-23 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD (AWT) going. ELITE PATCH, ridden by C Y Ho and trained by K W Lui, won by 4, with FANTASTIC FEELING second and BEST ALLIANCE third. Victory came as the 2.3 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.08.22
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 ELITE PATCH B/H/TT 1.08.22 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Y Ho · K W Lui 12 2.3 4
2 2 FANTASTIC FEELING N Callan · D E Ferraris 11 125.0 4
3 12 BEST ALLIANCE XB L Hewitson · D J Whyte 7 41.0 5
4 5 TEAM FORTUNE B/TT G van Niekerk · W Y So 9 19.0 6
5 8 MEGA RED B M L Yeung · C W Chang 4 9.1 6
6 1 MR WEALTH H/P R Bayliss · K L Man 6 10.0 6-1/2
7 4 HANDSOME REBEL B/H2 H N Wong · Y S Tsui 10 25.0 7-1/4
8 10 STAR MAJESTIC B M F Poon · P O'Sullivan 5 20.0 10
9 9 MOMENTUM GALAXY H/P M Chadwick · K H Ting 8 10.0 11-1/2
10 11 FANTASTIC FABIO H T Mo · C H Yip 1 19.0 13
11 6 STAR LUCK C Schofield · F C Lor 3 3.9 13-3/4
12 3 CHAMP PATROL A Badel · R Gibson 2 122.0 15-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ELITE PATCH2. FANTASTIC FEELING+4L3. BEST ALLIANCE+5L4. TEAM FORTUNE+6L5. MEGA RED+6L6. MR WEALTH+6.5L7. HANDSOME REBEL+7.25L8. STAR MAJESTIC+10L9. MOMENTUM GALAXY+11.5L10. FANTASTIC FABIO+13L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick ELITE PATCH (15.8%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 7 ELITE PATCH 15.8% 6.31 1
2 6 STAR LUCK 15.5% 6.44 11
3 9 MOMENTUM GALAXY 10.3% 9.75 9
4 1 MR WEALTH 9.8% 10.21 6
5 11 FANTASTIC FABIO 9.8% 10.25 10
6 10 STAR MAJESTIC 8.4% 11.92 8
7 4 HANDSOME REBEL 6.4% 15.64 7
8 8 MEGA RED 6.1% 16.40 5
9 3 CHAMP PATROL 6.0% 16.72 12
10 5 TEAM FORTUNE 5.7% 17.54 4
11 2 FANTASTIC FEELING 3.5% 28.86 2
12 12 BEST ALLIANCE 2.8% 35.85 3
ELITE PATCH — wonSTAR LUCKMOMENTUM GALAXYMR WEALTHFANTASTIC FABIOSTAR MAJESTICHANDSOME REBELMEGA REDCHAMP PATROLTEAM FORTUNEFANTASTIC FEELINGBEST ALLIANCE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 23

PLACE

2 199.5

7 13

12 88.5

QUINELLA

2,7 1,352

QUINELLA PLACE

2,7 382

2,12 2,598.5

7,12 167.5

TIERCE

7,2,12 19,117

TRIO

2,7,12 8,793

FIRST 4

2,5,7,12 19,617

QUARTET

7,2,12,5 323,483

3 PICK 1

A2

A1 14.5

A3

All pools (1 more)

4TH DOUBLE

8/2 2,307.5

8/7 278