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Sha Tin · 2019-11-23

Race 2

Class 5 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C 13 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2019-11-23 was Class 5 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. ADONIS, ridden by A Badel and trained by D J Whyte, won by 2-1/4, with WINWIN THIRTYTHREE second and MR MAGELLAN third. The winner led throughout. The 2.8 favourite MR MAGELLAN finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 1.21.93
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 5 ADONIS Wire to wire P-/H 1.21.93 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · D J Whyte 10 8.5 2-1/4
2 4 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE Closed strongly B2 C Y Ho · P F Yiu 1 11.0 2-1/4
3 2 MR MAGELLAN Closed strongly B2 C Schofield · Y S Tsui 5 2.8 2-1/2
4 6 GODSPEED Closed strongly B N Callan · D J Hall 13 12.0 3-1/2
5 12 SOCCER MASTER Closed strongly B1 G van Niekerk · W Y So 7 12.0 3-3/4
6 1 GENERAL TRUMP TT B Shinn · T P Yung 2 7.8 4-1/2
7 9 VICTORIOUS LEADER CP1 Z Purton · C H Yip 8 4.7 4-3/4
8 8 NEVER BETTER Closed strongly B/TT M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan 3 35.0 5-3/4
9 14 LUCKY STORM Closed strongly M F Poon · R Gibson 12 51.0 6
10 13 SUNNY MAJOR V A Sanna · D E Ferraris 6 62.0 7-1/4
11 10 MAJESTIC ENDEAVOUR XB/B1 R Bayliss · C Fownes 9 14.0 11
12 7 CHEEKY BEE B L Hewitson · A T Millard 4 55.0 12-1/2
13 11 FOX CHEUNGER H-/B/TT H W Lai · K W Lui 11 93.0 17-1/4
3 SUPERB AGILITY H T Mo · L Ho

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ADONIS2. WINWIN THIRTYTHREE+2.25L3. MR MAGELLAN+2.5L4. GODSPEED+3.5L5. SOCCER MASTER+3.75L6. GENERAL TRUMP+4.5L7. VICTORIOUS LEADER+4.75L8. NEVER BETTER+5.75L9. LUCKY STORM+6L10. SUNNY MAJOR+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick VICTORIOUS LEADER (25.1%) finished 7th — the winner ADONIS was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 VICTORIOUS LEADER 25.1% 3.98 7
2 2 MR MAGELLAN 22.4% 4.47 3
3 5 ADONIS 8.4% 11.87 1
4 4 WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 6.9% 14.43 2
5 8 NEVER BETTER 6.8% 14.75 8
6 6 GODSPEED 5.9% 16.82 4
7 12 SOCCER MASTER 5.9% 17.03 5
8 10 MAJESTIC ENDEAVOUR 5.2% 19.17 11
9 1 GENERAL TRUMP 4.6% 21.97 6
10 11 FOX CHEUNGER 3.1% 31.75 13
11 14 LUCKY STORM 2.5% 39.49 9
12 13 SUNNY MAJOR 1.8% 56.46 10
13 7 CHEEKY BEE 1.4% 73.89 12
VICTORIOUS LEADERMR MAGELLANADONIS — wonWINWIN THIRTYTHREENEVER BETTERGODSPEEDSOCCER MASTERMAJESTIC ENDEAVOURGENERAL TRUMPFOX CHEUNGERLUCKY STORMSUNNY MAJORCHEEKY BEE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

5 85.5

PLACE

2 14

4 30.5

5 23.5

QUINELLA

4,5 423.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 58

2,5 48.5

4,5 116

TIERCE

5,4,2 2,641

TRIO

2,4,5 354

FIRST 4

2,4,5,6 820

QUARTET

5,4,2,6 27,067

1ST DOUBLE

2/4 66.5

2/5 439

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A2 43.5

A1