Sha Tin · 2019-11-23

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD TO FIRM 1400m Course C 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2019-11-23 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. SIMPLE ELEGANT, ridden by G van Niekerk and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1-3/4, with GOLDEN FOUR second and SPRINT FORWARD third. The winner led throughout. Victory came as the 4.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.32

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	SIMPLE ELEGANT Wire to wire V 1.21.32 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) G van Niekerk · P F Yiu	G van Niekerk	P F Yiu	5	133 lb	4.0	1-3/4
2	11	GOLDEN FOUR Closed strongly U Rispoli · C W Chang	U Rispoli	C W Chang	9	121 lb	11.0	1-3/4
3	10	SPRINT FORWARD CP/XB/TT A Sanna · J Moore	A Sanna	J Moore	1	122 lb	11.0	2
4	7	JOYFUL HEART Closed strongly TT N Callan · F C Lor	N Callan	F C Lor	12	124 lb	28.0	2-1/4
5	13	NITRO EXPRESS Closed strongly B/TT C Schofield · D E Ferraris	C Schofield	D E Ferraris	6	120 lb	68.0	2-1/4
6	8	FUN TIMES Closed strongly B A Badel · A T Millard	A Badel	A T Millard	14	123 lb	5.9	4-1/4
7	5	DESTIN Closed strongly B Z Purton · P O'Sullivan	Z Purton	P O'Sullivan	10	125 lb	4.1	4-3/4
8	12	VEGA RHYTHM H H W Lai · L Ho	H W Lai	L Ho	7	121 lb	88.0	5-1/2
9	1	CIRCUIT HASSLER B/H/TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz	L Hewitson	A S Cruz	8	133 lb	10.0	5-3/4
10	9	SUPER ALLIANCES TT R Bayliss · J Size	R Bayliss	J Size	4	123 lb	11.0	7-1/4
11	6	VICTORY VISION H T Mo · C H Yip	H T Mo	C H Yip	2	122 lb	151.0	10
12	14	ABSOLUCOOL B-/H/P2 C Y Ho · C Fownes	C Y Ho	C Fownes	3	117 lb	8.6	11-1/2
13	4	COPARTNER RAPPORT H1 M F Poon · D J Hall	M F Poon	D J Hall	13	123 lb	191.0	11-3/4
14	3	LOOK ERAS V- H N Wong · Y S Tsui	H N Wong	Y S Tsui	11	125 lb	124.0	20

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick FUN TIMES (15.8%) finished 6th — the winner SIMPLE ELEGANT was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	8	FUN TIMES	15.8%	6.32	6	5.9
2	5	DESTIN	15.6%	6.42	7	4.1
3	2	SIMPLE ELEGANT	15.4%	6.50	1	4.0
4	11	GOLDEN FOUR	9.0%	11.07	2	11.0
5	10	SPRINT FORWARD	6.8%	14.65	3	11.0
6	4	COPARTNER RAPPORT	6.4%	15.67	13	191.0
7	14	ABSOLUCOOL	5.8%	17.11	12	8.6
8	6	VICTORY VISION	5.8%	17.18	11	151.0
9	9	SUPER ALLIANCES	5.6%	17.83	10	11.0
10	1	CIRCUIT HASSLER	4.6%	21.90	9	10.0
11	7	JOYFUL HEART	4.5%	22.02	4	28.0
12	13	NITRO EXPRESS	1.8%	54.20	5	68.0
13	3	LOOK ERAS	1.8%	55.05	14	124.0
14	12	VEGA RHYTHM	0.9%	105.91	8	88.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 40

PLACE

2 18.5

10 29

11 35.5

QUINELLA

2,11 276.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,10 78.5

2,11 104.5

10,11 185

TIERCE

2,11,10 4,575

TRIO

2,10,11 777

FIRST 4

2,7,10,11 3,518

QUARTET

2,11,10,7 63,943

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 20.5

A3 —

All pools (2 more)

5TH DOUBLE

7/2 112

7/11 53.5

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

3,8,10/Any Combination/Any Combination 161

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