沙田 · 2019-11-23
第 6場
2019-11-23沙田第6場，Class 4，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由G van Niekerk策騎、P F Yiu訓練的SIMPLE ELEGANT勝出，贏出1-3/4。GOLDEN FOUR獲得亞軍；SPRINT FORWARD獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。頭馬以4.0倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 2 | SIMPLE ELEGANT 一路領先 V 1.21.32 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） G van Niekerk · P F Yiu | G van Niekerk | P F Yiu | 5 | 4.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 2 | 11 | GOLDEN FOUR 後段發力 U Rispoli · C W Chang | U Rispoli | C W Chang | 9 | 11.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 3 | 10 | SPRINT FORWARD CP/XB/TT A Sanna · J Moore | A Sanna | J Moore | 1 | 11.0 | 2 |
| 4 | 7 | JOYFUL HEART 後段發力 TT N Callan · F C Lor | N Callan | F C Lor | 12 | 28.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 13 | NITRO EXPRESS 後段發力 B/TT C Schofield · D E Ferraris | C Schofield | D E Ferraris | 6 | 68.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | FUN TIMES 後段發力 B A Badel · A T Millard | A Badel | A T Millard | 14 | 5.9 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 5 | DESTIN 後段發力 B Z Purton · P O'Sullivan | Z Purton | P O'Sullivan | 10 | 4.1 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 12 | VEGA RHYTHM H H W Lai · L Ho | H W Lai | L Ho | 7 | 88.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 9 | 1 | CIRCUIT HASSLER B/H/TT L Hewitson · A S Cruz | L Hewitson | A S Cruz | 8 | 10.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 9 | SUPER ALLIANCES TT R Bayliss · J Size | R Bayliss | J Size | 4 | 11.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 6 | VICTORY VISION H T Mo · C H Yip | H T Mo | C H Yip | 2 | 151.0 | 10 |
| 12 | 14 | ABSOLUCOOL B-/H/P2 C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 3 | 8.6 | 11-1/2 |
| 13 | 4 | COPARTNER RAPPORT H1 M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 13 | 191.0 | 11-3/4 |
| 14 | 3 | LOOK ERAS V- H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 11 | 124.0 | 20 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | FUN TIMES | 15.8% | 6.32 | 6 |
| 2 | 5 | DESTIN | 15.6% | 6.42 | 7 |
| 3 | 2 | SIMPLE ELEGANT | 15.4% | 6.50 | 1 |
| 4 | 11 | GOLDEN FOUR | 9.0% | 11.07 | 2 |
| 5 | 10 | SPRINT FORWARD | 6.8% | 14.65 | 3 |
| 6 | 4 | COPARTNER RAPPORT | 6.4% | 15.67 | 13 |
| 7 | 14 | ABSOLUCOOL | 5.8% | 17.11 | 12 |
| 8 | 6 | VICTORY VISION | 5.8% | 17.18 | 11 |
| 9 | 9 | SUPER ALLIANCES | 5.6% | 17.83 | 10 |
| 10 | 1 | CIRCUIT HASSLER | 4.6% | 21.90 | 9 |
| 11 | 7 | JOYFUL HEART | 4.5% | 22.02 | 4 |
| 12 | 13 | NITRO EXPRESS | 1.8% | 54.20 | 5 |
| 13 | 3 | LOOK ERAS | 1.8% | 55.05 | 14 |
| 14 | 12 | VEGA RHYTHM | 0.9% | 105.91 | 8 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
2 40
PLACE
2 18.5
10 29
11 35.5
QUINELLA
2,11 276.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,10 78.5
2,11 104.5
10,11 185
TIERCE
2,11,10 4,575
TRIO
2,10,11 777
FIRST 4
2,7,10,11 3,518
QUARTET
2,11,10,7 63,943
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 20.5
A3 —
全部彩池（另 2 項）
5TH DOUBLE
7/2 112
7/11 53.5
TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)
3,8,10/Any Combination/Any Combination 161