沙田 · 2019-11-23
第 7場
2019-11-23沙田第7場，Class 1，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由Z Purton策騎、D J Hall訓練的FAST MOST FURIOUS勝出，贏出1-1/2。HARMONY VICTORY獲得亞軍；EXTRA BRUT獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.7倍大熱門HARMONY VICTORY跑獲第2名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | FAST MOST FURIOUS 後段發力 H 1.33.08 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 10 | 4.8 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 8 | HARMONY VICTORY 後段發力 SR/TT G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 11 | 3.7 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 13 | EXTRA BRUT 後段發力 TT1 M L Yeung · F C Lor | M L Yeung | F C Lor | 7 | 31.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 4 | 12 | GREEN LUCK 後段發力 B/H M F Poon · C Fownes | M F Poon | C Fownes | 8 | 34.0 | 1-3/4 |
| 5 | 9 | RED WARRIOR 後段發力 TT M Chadwick · J Size | M Chadwick | J Size | 14 | 47.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 6 | 1 | ENCOURAGING B/TT A Sanna · J Moore | A Sanna | J Moore | 9 | 14.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 7 | 2 | CHAMPION'S WAY R Bayliss · J Size | R Bayliss | J Size | 3 | 9.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 8 | 6 | NOTHINGILIKEMORE B B Shinn · J Size | B Shinn | J Size | 1 | 11.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 9 | 5 | INSAYSHABLE H-/SR U Rispoli · Y S Tsui | U Rispoli | Y S Tsui | 6 | 45.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 10 | 7 | DOCTOR GEOFF 後段發力 H-/TT2 C Y Ho · K W Lui | C Y Ho | K W Lui | 12 | 18.0 | 4-1/2 |
| 11 | 14 | GRACEANDMERCY XB A Badel · A T Millard | A Badel | A T Millard | 4 | 14.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 12 | 4 | TIME TO CELEBRATE B C Schofield · J Size | C Schofield | J Size | 13 | 32.0 | 8 |
| 13 | 10 | MISSION TYCOON 早段領放 V-/B2/TT K H Chan · F C Lor | K H Chan | F C Lor | 5 | 9.9 | 9 |
| 14 | 3 | GOOD STANDING B/XB N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 2 | 9.2 | 9-1/2 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | HARMONY VICTORY | 22.9% | 4.36 | 2 |
| 2 | 11 | FAST MOST FURIOUS | 13.8% | 7.24 | 1 |
| 3 | 12 | GREEN LUCK | 11.7% | 8.57 | 4 |
| 4 | 2 | CHAMPION'S WAY | 9.8% | 10.23 | 7 |
| 5 | 1 | ENCOURAGING | 7.7% | 12.95 | 6 |
| 6 | 3 | GOOD STANDING | 7.0% | 14.34 | 14 |
| 7 | 6 | NOTHINGILIKEMORE | 6.6% | 15.23 | 8 |
| 8 | 10 | MISSION TYCOON | 3.6% | 27.49 | 13 |
| 9 | 7 | DOCTOR GEOFF | 3.6% | 27.99 | 10 |
| 10 | 4 | TIME TO CELEBRATE | 3.4% | 29.18 | 12 |
| 11 | 13 | EXTRA BRUT | 3.4% | 29.53 | 3 |
| 12 | 9 | RED WARRIOR | 3.3% | 30.53 | 5 |
| 13 | 5 | INSAYSHABLE | 1.7% | 59.45 | 9 |
| 14 | 14 | GRACEANDMERCY | 1.6% | 63.67 | 11 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
11 48
PLACE
8 16
11 19.5
13 75
QUINELLA
8,11 98.5
QUINELLA PLACE
8,11 43.5
8,13 271
11,13 352.5
TIERCE
11,8,13 6,043
TRIO
8,11,13 1,455
FIRST 4
8,11,12,13 4,832
QUARTET
11,8,13,12 98,373
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,10,11/8,11,13 82,438
全部彩池（另 3 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A1 21
A3 —
6TH DOUBLE
2/8 28.5
2/11 368.5
WINNING TRAINER
B4 15.5
B3 —
B1 —
B2 —