沙田 · 2019-11-23
第 4場
2019-11-23沙田第4場，Class 4，途程1600米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由M Chadwick策騎、P F Yiu訓練的VILLA FIONN勝出，贏出3/4。JOY MASTER獲得亞軍；AMAZING SATCHMO獲得季軍。頭馬後上力強。3.1倍大熱門LITTLE GENERAL跑獲第7名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 8 | VILLA FIONN 後段發力 B 1.34.53 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 12 | 11.0 | 3/4 |
| 2 | 10 | JOY MASTER 後段發力 TT K H Chan · C Fownes | K H Chan | C Fownes | 6 | 25.0 | 3/4 |
| 3 | 3 | AMAZING SATCHMO 後段發力 B Z Purton · D E Ferraris | Z Purton | D E Ferraris | 5 | 7.3 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | HAPPY WIN WIN 後段發力 XB1/TT U Rispoli · C H Yip | U Rispoli | C H Yip | 13 | 30.0 | 2-3/4 |
| 5 | 13 | TELECOM ROCKET B2 C Schofield · Y S Tsui | C Schofield | Y S Tsui | 14 | 6.5 | 3 |
| 6 | 6 | SUNNY POWER V- N Callan · K W Lui | N Callan | K W Lui | 10 | 21.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 7 | 14 | LITTLE GENERAL B/H G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 4 | 3.1 | 3-3/4 |
| 8 | 1 | LONDON HALL 後段發力 B B Shinn · D J Hall | B Shinn | D J Hall | 8 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 9 | 9 | CHIU CHOW KID 後段發力 TT H N Wong · T P Yung | H N Wong | T P Yung | 1 | 73.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | SAVVY SEVEN B/TT C Y Ho · J Moore | C Y Ho | J Moore | 3 | 5.4 | 4 |
| 11 | 4 | WINNING ENDEAVOUR H-/XB1 A Sanna · D J Whyte | A Sanna | D J Whyte | 9 | 11.0 | 4 |
| 12 | 2 | NEW ELEGANCE XB A Badel · F C Lor | A Badel | F C Lor | 7 | 39.0 | 4 |
| 13 | 12 | SPIRIT PATCH 早段領放 B M F Poon · K L Man | M F Poon | K L Man | 11 | 114.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 14 | 7 | HAPPY FOREST TT H W Lai · W Y So | H W Lai | W Y So | 2 | 234.0 | 30-3/4 |
| — | 0 | STARSHIP · P O'Sullivan | — | P O'Sullivan | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | SAVVY SEVEN | 18.5% | 5.41 | 10 |
| 2 | 1 | LONDON HALL | 13.1% | 7.65 | 8 |
| 3 | 14 | LITTLE GENERAL | 11.8% | 8.45 | 7 |
| 4 | 3 | AMAZING SATCHMO | 10.5% | 9.51 | 3 |
| 5 | 8 | VILLA FIONN | 9.6% | 10.43 | 1 |
| 6 | 13 | TELECOM ROCKET | 8.8% | 11.34 | 5 |
| 7 | 4 | WINNING ENDEAVOUR | 6.9% | 14.41 | 11 |
| 8 | 6 | SUNNY POWER | 5.8% | 17.21 | 6 |
| 9 | 2 | NEW ELEGANCE | 4.7% | 21.40 | 12 |
| 10 | 10 | JOY MASTER | 4.3% | 23.05 | 2 |
| 11 | 5 | HAPPY WIN WIN | 3.0% | 33.57 | 4 |
| 12 | 9 | CHIU CHOW KID | 1.2% | 84.35 | 9 |
| 13 | 12 | SPIRIT PATCH | 1.1% | 92.09 | 13 |
| 14 | 7 | HAPPY FOREST | 0.7% | 153.18 | 14 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
8 116
PLACE
3 23.5
8 30.5
10 64
QUINELLA
8,10 1,244
QUINELLA PLACE
3,8 123
3,10 273.5
8,10 333.5
TIERCE
8,10,3 13,980
TRIO
3,8,10 2,459
FIRST 4
3,5,8,10 12,402
QUARTET
8,10,3,5 312,682
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
4,8,12/3,8,10 352,553
全部彩池（另 2 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 —
A2 32.5
3RD DOUBLE
4/8 186.5
4/10 64.5