沙田 · 2019-11-23
第 3場
2019-11-23沙田第3場，Class 4，途程1000米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由Z Purton策騎、C S Shum訓練的LUCKY MORE勝出，贏出4-1/4。TRUST ME獲得亞軍；WAR OF COURAGE獲得季軍。頭馬以1.8倍大熱姿態勝出。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | LUCKY MORE 0.56.01 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） Z Purton · C S Shum | Z Purton | C S Shum | 4 | 1.8 | 4-1/4 |
| 2 | 12 | TRUST ME H-/B1 M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 12 | 28.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 3 | 8 | WAR OF COURAGE C Schofield · K L Man | C Schofield | K L Man | 1 | 50.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 4 | 5 | HERE COMES TED N Callan · D E Ferraris | N Callan | D E Ferraris | 11 | 13.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 5 | 13 | ISLAND WINNER CP/XB1/TT G van Niekerk · P F Yiu | G van Niekerk | P F Yiu | 13 | 12.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 6 | 9 | AURORA STEED B U Rispoli · J Size | U Rispoli | J Size | 14 | 43.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 7 | 3 | STRATHALLAN K H Chan · A T Millard | K H Chan | A T Millard | 2 | 22.0 | 7 |
| 8 | 2 | KA FORTUNE H1/XB1 H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | 7 | 205.0 | 7 |
| 9 | 6 | MOON PEAKS B/TT A Badel · R Gibson | A Badel | R Gibson | 10 | 11.0 | 7-1/2 |
| 10 | 11 | AIOLOS H/TT M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 6 | 191.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 11 | 1 | VALIANT DREAM TT1 B Shinn · K W Lui | B Shinn | K W Lui | 8 | 3.8 | 9-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | JAZZ STEED A Sanna · C Fownes | A Sanna | C Fownes | 9 | 60.0 | 10-3/4 |
| 13 | 7 | SPARKLING DOLPHIN C Y Ho · Y S Tsui | C Y Ho | Y S Tsui | 3 | 107.0 | 11-1/2 |
| 14 | 14 | GALAXY RACER H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 5 | 78.0 | 15-3/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 4 | LUCKY MORE | 49.4% | 2.03 | 1 |
| 2 | 3 | STRATHALLAN | 9.6% | 10.36 | 7 |
| 3 | 8 | WAR OF COURAGE | 6.3% | 15.99 | 3 |
| 4 | 9 | AURORA STEED | 6.1% | 16.50 | 6 |
| 5 | 6 | MOON PEAKS | 5.1% | 19.78 | 9 |
| 6 | 1 | VALIANT DREAM | 4.9% | 20.25 | 11 |
| 7 | 5 | HERE COMES TED | 4.5% | 22.39 | 4 |
| 8 | 2 | KA FORTUNE | 3.6% | 28.10 | 8 |
| 9 | 13 | ISLAND WINNER | 2.7% | 36.67 | 5 |
| 10 | 10 | JAZZ STEED | 2.4% | 41.02 | 12 |
| 11 | 12 | TRUST ME | 2.1% | 47.66 | 2 |
| 12 | 14 | GALAXY RACER | 1.5% | 66.65 | 14 |
| 13 | 11 | AIOLOS | 1.4% | 71.41 | 10 |
| 14 | 7 | SPARKLING DOLPHIN | 0.5% | 200.74 | 13 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
4 18
PLACE
4 11.5
8 94
12 60.5
QUINELLA
4,12 280.5
QUINELLA PLACE
4,8 140.5
4,12 99
8,12 1,303
TIERCE
4,12,8 6,435
TRIO
4,8,12 2,771
FIRST 4
4,5,8,12 3,653
QUARTET
4,12,8,5 46,898
2ND DOUBLE
5/4 216
5/12 386
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A2 —
A3 —
A1 16