沙田 · 2019-11-23
第 2場
2019-11-23沙田第2場，Class 5，途程1400米，跑道評為GOOD TO FIRM。由A Badel策騎、D J Whyte訓練的ADONIS勝出，贏出2-1/4。WINWIN THIRTYTHREE獲得亞軍；MR MAGELLAN獲得季軍。頭馬帶放到底。2.8倍大熱門MR MAGELLAN跑獲第3名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | ADONIS 一路領先 P-/H 1.21.93 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） A Badel · D J Whyte | A Badel | D J Whyte | 10 | 8.5 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 4 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE 後段發力 B2 C Y Ho · P F Yiu | C Y Ho | P F Yiu | 1 | 11.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 2 | MR MAGELLAN 後段發力 B2 C Schofield · Y S Tsui | C Schofield | Y S Tsui | 5 | 2.8 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 6 | GODSPEED 後段發力 B N Callan · D J Hall | N Callan | D J Hall | 13 | 12.0 | 3-1/2 |
| 5 | 12 | SOCCER MASTER 後段發力 B1 G van Niekerk · W Y So | G van Niekerk | W Y So | 7 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 6 | 1 | GENERAL TRUMP TT B Shinn · T P Yung | B Shinn | T P Yung | 2 | 7.8 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 9 | VICTORIOUS LEADER CP1 Z Purton · C H Yip | Z Purton | C H Yip | 8 | 4.7 | 4-3/4 |
| 8 | 8 | NEVER BETTER 後段發力 B/TT M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan | M L Yeung | P O'Sullivan | 3 | 35.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 14 | LUCKY STORM 後段發力 M F Poon · R Gibson | M F Poon | R Gibson | 12 | 51.0 | 6 |
| 10 | 13 | SUNNY MAJOR V A Sanna · D E Ferraris | A Sanna | D E Ferraris | 6 | 62.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 11 | 10 | MAJESTIC ENDEAVOUR XB/B1 R Bayliss · C Fownes | R Bayliss | C Fownes | 9 | 14.0 | 11 |
| 12 | 7 | CHEEKY BEE B L Hewitson · A T Millard | L Hewitson | A T Millard | 4 | 55.0 | 12-1/2 |
| 13 | 11 | FOX CHEUNGER H-/B/TT H W Lai · K W Lui | H W Lai | K W Lui | 11 | 93.0 | 17-1/4 |
| — | 3 | SUPERB AGILITY H T Mo · L Ho | H T Mo | L Ho | — | — | — |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | VICTORIOUS LEADER | 25.1% | 3.98 | 7 |
| 2 | 2 | MR MAGELLAN | 22.4% | 4.47 | 3 |
| 3 | 5 | ADONIS | 8.4% | 11.87 | 1 |
| 4 | 4 | WINWIN THIRTYTHREE | 6.9% | 14.43 | 2 |
| 5 | 8 | NEVER BETTER | 6.8% | 14.75 | 8 |
| 6 | 6 | GODSPEED | 5.9% | 16.82 | 4 |
| 7 | 12 | SOCCER MASTER | 5.9% | 17.03 | 5 |
| 8 | 10 | MAJESTIC ENDEAVOUR | 5.2% | 19.17 | 11 |
| 9 | 1 | GENERAL TRUMP | 4.6% | 21.97 | 6 |
| 10 | 11 | FOX CHEUNGER | 3.1% | 31.75 | 13 |
| 11 | 14 | LUCKY STORM | 2.5% | 39.49 | 9 |
| 12 | 13 | SUNNY MAJOR | 1.8% | 56.46 | 10 |
| 13 | 7 | CHEEKY BEE | 1.4% | 73.89 | 12 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
5 85.5
PLACE
2 14
4 30.5
5 23.5
QUINELLA
4,5 423.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,4 58
2,5 48.5
4,5 116
TIERCE
5,4,2 2,641
TRIO
2,4,5 354
FIRST 4
2,4,5,6 820
QUARTET
5,4,2,6 27,067
1ST DOUBLE
2/4 66.5
2/5 439
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A2 43.5
A1 —