Happy Valley · 2020-01-15
Race 4
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | PLAY WISE Closed strongly B 1.39.30 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 1 | 8.4 | N |
| 2 | 0 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT Closed strongly H J Moreira · F C Lor | J Moreira | F C Lor | 11 | 4.0 | N |
| 3 | 0 | LIGHTNING STEED TT M Chadwick · C Fownes | M Chadwick | C Fownes | 2 | 7.3 | 1/2 |
| 4 | 0 | INDIGENOUS STAR Closed strongly H W Lai · P F Yiu | H W Lai | P F Yiu | 5 | 27.0 | 3-1/4 |
| 5 | 0 | PRETTY BAUHINIA Closed strongly B K Teetan · Y S Tsui | K Teetan | Y S Tsui | 9 | 8.8 | 4 |
| 6 | 0 | HARRIER JET Closed strongly V/TT S De Sousa · P O'Sullivan | S De Sousa | P O'Sullivan | 10 | 27.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 7 | 0 | MANAGEMENT STAR Closed strongly B/TT A Badel · K W Lui | A Badel | K W Lui | 3 | 4.3 | 4-1/2 |
| 8 | 0 | CHARITY WINGS B T Piccone · C S Shum | T Piccone | C S Shum | 4 | 7.2 | 4-3/4 |
| 9 | 0 | MISTER MONTE B G van Niekerk · C W Chang | G van Niekerk | C W Chang | 7 | 10.0 | 4-3/4 |
| 10 | 0 | TUNG WAH GLORY Closed strongly P1 M L Yeung · T P Yung | M L Yeung | T P Yung | 12 | 98.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 0 | ELECTRIC LIGHTNING Led early B/TT K H Chan · D E Ferraris | K H Chan | D E Ferraris | 8 | 24.0 | 7 |
| 12 | 0 | GREEN GENERATION B T H So · D J Hall | T H So | D J Hall | 6 | 253.0 | 7-1/4 |
This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.
Race 4 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-15 was Class 4 over 1650m, run on GOOD going. PLAY WISE, ridden by M F Poon and trained by C H Yip, won by N, with HEAVENLY THOUGHT second and LIGHTNING STEED third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.0 favourite HEAVENLY THOUGHT finished 2nd.
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 0 | HEAVENLY THOUGHT | 25.7% | 3.90 | 2 |
| 2 | 0 | CHARITY WINGS | 19.5% | 5.12 | 8 |
| 3 | 0 | MANAGEMENT STAR | 12.8% | 7.81 | 7 |
| 4 | 0 | PLAY WISE | 8.0% | 12.50 | 1 |
| 5 | 0 | LIGHTNING STEED | 7.8% | 12.82 | 3 |
| 6 | 0 | MISTER MONTE | 6.5% | 15.42 | 9 |
| 7 | 0 | HARRIER JET | 5.4% | 18.64 | 6 |
| 8 | 0 | PRETTY BAUHINIA | 4.4% | 22.85 | 5 |
| 9 | 0 | ELECTRIC LIGHTNING | 3.7% | 26.76 | 11 |
| 10 | 0 | INDIGENOUS STAR | 2.9% | 34.17 | 4 |
| 11 | 0 | TUNG WAH GLORY | 2.7% | 37.40 | 10 |
| 12 | 0 | GREEN GENERATION | 0.6% | 155.29 | 12 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 84.5
PLACE
2 18
5 30
11 24.5
QUINELLA
2,5 194.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 69.5
2,11 65.5
5,11 105
TIERCE
5,2,11 2,783
TRIO
2,5,11 445
FIRST 4
2,5,7,11 2,580
QUARTET
5,2,11,7 69,115
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 20.5
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
12/2 61
12/5 656.5