Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Happy Valley · 2020-01-15

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 6 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-15 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. VICTORY IN HAND, ridden by K Teetan and trained by K W Lui, won by 1-1/4, with MEHBOOB second and LORIZ third. Victory came as the 2.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.46
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 4 VICTORY IN HAND TT 1.09.46 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · K W Lui 9 2.7 1-1/4
2 5 MEHBOOB XB M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 4 5.4 1-1/4
3 1 LORIZ B K H Chan · P F Yiu 8 7.7 2-3/4
4 11 ALL BEST FRIENDS B H W Lai · K L Man 12 40.0 2-3/4
5 2 CASA DE FORCA CP T Piccone · A S Cruz 10 7.2 3
6 7 WILD WEST WING J Moreira · J Size 11 10.0 3-1/2
7 8 TRAVEL DATUK B S De Sousa · R Gibson 6 14.0 3-3/4
8 12 WONDER WIN H/P T H So · L Ho 3 227.0 3-3/4
9 6 SUPER LUCKY H/XB A Badel · C Fownes 1 10.0 4-1/4
10 10 THE ABRAXAS B H N Wong · Y S Tsui 5 17.0 4-1/4
11 3 FANTASTIC FABIO B2 H T Mo · C H Yip 2 24.0 4-3/4
12 9 GRAND HARBOUR H/TT G van Niekerk · C W Chang 7 74.0 4-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. VICTORY IN HAND2. MEHBOOB+1.25L3. LORIZ+2.75L4. ALL BEST FRIENDS+2.75L5. CASA DE FORCA+3L6. WILD WEST WING+3.5L7. TRAVEL DATUK+3.75L8. WONDER WIN+3.75L9. SUPER LUCKY+4.25L10. THE ABRAXAS+4.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick MEHBOOB (17.3%) finished 2nd — the winner VICTORY IN HAND was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 5 MEHBOOB 17.3% 5.78 2
2 4 VICTORY IN HAND 14.5% 6.88 1
3 1 LORIZ 14.2% 7.07 3
4 7 WILD WEST WING 14.0% 7.15 6
5 2 CASA DE FORCA 13.4% 7.48 5
6 10 THE ABRAXAS 9.2% 10.86 10
7 8 TRAVEL DATUK 6.4% 15.51 7
8 6 SUPER LUCKY 4.1% 24.20 9
9 3 FANTASTIC FABIO 2.8% 36.18 11
10 9 GRAND HARBOUR 2.0% 50.86 12
11 11 ALL BEST FRIENDS 1.4% 72.66 4
12 12 WONDER WIN 0.8% 130.50 8
MEHBOOBVICTORY IN HAND — wonLORIZWILD WEST WINGCASA DE FORCATHE ABRAXASTRAVEL DATUKSUPER LUCKYFANTASTIC FABIOGRAND HARBOURALL BEST FRIENDSWONDER WIN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 27.5

PLACE

1 26

4 14.5

5 17.5

QUINELLA

4,5 75.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 47.5

1,5 95

4,5 32

TIERCE

4,5,1 955

TRIO

1,4,5 235

FIRST 4

1,4,5,11 1,349

QUARTET

4,5,1,11 15,323

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 18

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

5/4 198.5

5/5 36