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Happy Valley · 2020-01-15

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-15 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. FLYING GODSPELL, ridden by M F Poon and trained by K H Ting, won by 1-1/4, with THE SHOW second and AMAZING third. Victory came as the 3.7 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.61
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 FLYING GODSPELL SR 1.09.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · K H Ting 1 3.7 1-1/4
2 11 THE SHOW B G van Niekerk · C W Chang 5 7.3 1-1/4
3 6 AMAZING TT K C Leung · T P Yung 10 16.0 2-1/2
4 2 JOLLY CONVERGENCE CP N Callan · R Gibson 4 11.0 2-1/2
5 7 EXCEPTIONAL DESIRE B T Piccone · W Y So 12 6.8 2-1/2
6 3 PERFECT TO PLAY H/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 2 9.3 4
7 9 AFTER ME TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu 3 5.4 4
8 5 MY FAMILY H N Wong · Y S Tsui 11 91.0 4
9 8 NICE KICK PC J Moreira · J Size 8 6.4 4-1/2
10 1 MR WISEGUY B L Hewitson · D J Whyte 9 93.0 5-1/2
11 4 KING PRINT B H W Lai · C H Yip 6 67.0 6-1/4
12 10 JOY AVENUE K Teetan · C H Yip 7 34.0 8-3/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. FLYING GODSPELL2. THE SHOW+1.25L3. AMAZING+2.5L4. JOLLY CONVERGENCE+2.5L5. EXCEPTIONAL DESIRE+2.5L6. PERFECT TO PLAY+4L7. AFTER ME+4L8. MY FAMILY+4L9. NICE KICK+4.5L10. MR WISEGUY+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick AFTER ME (20.2%) finished 7th — the winner FLYING GODSPELL was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 9 AFTER ME 20.2% 4.95 7
2 8 NICE KICK 19.5% 5.12 9
3 12 FLYING GODSPELL 13.9% 7.18 1
4 3 PERFECT TO PLAY 9.8% 10.23 6
5 6 AMAZING 8.0% 12.58 3
6 7 EXCEPTIONAL DESIRE 7.8% 12.77 5
7 11 THE SHOW 6.0% 16.70 2
8 5 MY FAMILY 5.3% 18.97 8
9 2 JOLLY CONVERGENCE 5.1% 19.46 4
10 10 JOY AVENUE 1.8% 54.08 12
11 4 KING PRINT 1.5% 68.49 11
12 1 MR WISEGUY 1.1% 92.49 10
AFTER MENICE KICKFLYING GODSPELL — wonPERFECT TO PLAYAMAZINGEXCEPTIONAL DESIRETHE SHOWMY FAMILYJOLLY CONVERGENCEJOY AVENUEKING PRINTMR WISEGUY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 37

PLACE

6 49

11 19

12 16.5

QUINELLA

11,12 141.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,11 156

6,12 118

11,12 51.5

TIERCE

12,11,6 2,823

TRIO

6,11,12 703

FIRST 4

2,6,11,12 1,400

QUARTET

12,11,6,2 24,742

1ST DOUBLE

8/11 48

8/12 214

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1

A3

A2 18