Happy Valley · 2020-01-15
Race 2
Race 2 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-15 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. FLYING GODSPELL, ridden by M F Poon and trained by K H Ting, won by 1-1/4, with THE SHOW second and AMAZING third. Victory came as the 3.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | FLYING GODSPELL SR 1.09.61 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · K H Ting | M F Poon | K H Ting | 1 | 3.7 | 1-1/4 |
| 2 | 11 | THE SHOW B G van Niekerk · C W Chang | G van Niekerk | C W Chang | 5 | 7.3 | 1-1/4 |
| 3 | 6 | AMAZING TT K C Leung · T P Yung | K C Leung | T P Yung | 10 | 16.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 2 | JOLLY CONVERGENCE CP N Callan · R Gibson | N Callan | R Gibson | 4 | 11.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 5 | 7 | EXCEPTIONAL DESIRE B T Piccone · W Y So | T Piccone | W Y So | 12 | 6.8 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 3 | PERFECT TO PLAY H/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes | C Y Ho | C Fownes | 2 | 9.3 | 4 |
| 7 | 9 | AFTER ME TT M Chadwick · P F Yiu | M Chadwick | P F Yiu | 3 | 5.4 | 4 |
| 8 | 5 | MY FAMILY H N Wong · Y S Tsui | H N Wong | Y S Tsui | 11 | 91.0 | 4 |
| 9 | 8 | NICE KICK PC J Moreira · J Size | J Moreira | J Size | 8 | 6.4 | 4-1/2 |
| 10 | 1 | MR WISEGUY B L Hewitson · D J Whyte | L Hewitson | D J Whyte | 9 | 93.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 11 | 4 | KING PRINT B H W Lai · C H Yip | H W Lai | C H Yip | 6 | 67.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 12 | 10 | JOY AVENUE K Teetan · C H Yip | K Teetan | C H Yip | 7 | 34.0 | 8-3/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 9 | AFTER ME | 20.2% | 4.95 | 7 |
| 2 | 8 | NICE KICK | 19.5% | 5.12 | 9 |
| 3 | 12 | FLYING GODSPELL | 13.9% | 7.18 | 1 |
| 4 | 3 | PERFECT TO PLAY | 9.8% | 10.23 | 6 |
| 5 | 6 | AMAZING | 8.0% | 12.58 | 3 |
| 6 | 7 | EXCEPTIONAL DESIRE | 7.8% | 12.77 | 5 |
| 7 | 11 | THE SHOW | 6.0% | 16.70 | 2 |
| 8 | 5 | MY FAMILY | 5.3% | 18.97 | 8 |
| 9 | 2 | JOLLY CONVERGENCE | 5.1% | 19.46 | 4 |
| 10 | 10 | JOY AVENUE | 1.8% | 54.08 | 12 |
| 11 | 4 | KING PRINT | 1.5% | 68.49 | 11 |
| 12 | 1 | MR WISEGUY | 1.1% | 92.49 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 37
PLACE
6 49
11 19
12 16.5
QUINELLA
11,12 141.5
QUINELLA PLACE
6,11 156
6,12 118
11,12 51.5
TIERCE
12,11,6 2,823
TRIO
6,11,12 703
FIRST 4
2,6,11,12 1,400
QUARTET
12,11,6,2 24,742
1ST DOUBLE
8/11 48
8/12 214
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 —
A3 —
A2 18