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Happy Valley · 2020-01-15

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course C+3 12 runners

Race 9 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-15 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. HIGHLY PROACTIVE, ridden by K Teetan and trained by K W Lui, won by 1/2, with SHINING ACE second and SNAP FIT third. Victory came as the 1.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.09.44
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 HIGHLY PROACTIVE H/TT 1.09.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) K Teetan · K W Lui 3 1.9 1/2
2 1 SHINING ACE B B Shinn · J Size 5 4.3 1/2
3 3 SNAP FIT B/TT J Moreira · C Fownes 12 4.4 3/4
4 10 MOMENTUM GALAXY H/P K C Leung · K H Ting 1 18.0 3-3/4
5 9 STARLIGHT B1 K H Chan · C H Yip 7 17.0 4
6 11 TAILOR MADE C Y Ho · C W Chang 6 87.0 4-1/2
7 4 BREEDERS' STAR H A Badel · D E Ferraris 2 21.0 5
8 12 TEAM FORTUNE B/TT H N Wong · W Y So 4 204.0 5-1/4
9 7 SMILING CITY SR/CP1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 11 262.0 5-1/2
10 8 MARVEL DRAGON TT1 M L Yeung · T P Yung 9 70.0 6-1/2
11 6 MAGIC SUPREME G van Niekerk · J Moore 8 26.0 8-1/4
12 5 COPARTNER SPIRIT H/XB H T Mo · R Gibson 10 362.0 8-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HIGHLY PROACTIVE2. SHINING ACE+0.5L3. SNAP FIT+0.75L4. MOMENTUM GALAXY+3.75L5. STARLIGHT+4L6. TAILOR MADE+4.5L7. BREEDERS' STAR+5L8. TEAM FORTUNE+5.25L9. SMILING CITY+5.5L10. MARVEL DRAGON+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick SNAP FIT (43.9%) finished 3rd — the winner HIGHLY PROACTIVE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 SNAP FIT 43.9% 2.28 3
2 2 HIGHLY PROACTIVE 26.1% 3.83 1
3 1 SHINING ACE 11.8% 8.45 2
4 9 STARLIGHT 4.9% 20.42 5
5 4 BREEDERS' STAR 3.3% 29.93 7
6 10 MOMENTUM GALAXY 3.2% 30.77 4
7 8 MARVEL DRAGON 1.7% 60.44 10
8 6 MAGIC SUPREME 1.5% 65.23 11
9 7 SMILING CITY 1.1% 90.76 9
10 11 TAILOR MADE 0.9% 106.67 6
11 12 TEAM FORTUNE 0.9% 117.05 8
12 5 COPARTNER SPIRIT 0.6% 176.95 12
SNAP FITHIGHLY PROACTIVE — wonSHINING ACESTARLIGHTBREEDERS' STARMOMENTUM GALAXYMARVEL DRAGONMAGIC SUPREMESMILING CITYTAILOR MADETEAM FORTUNECOPARTNER SPIRIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 19

PLACE

1 14.5

2 11.5

3 13.5

QUINELLA

1,2 41

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 19

1,3 32

2,3 20

TIERCE

2,1,3 134

TRIO

1,2,3 39

FIRST 4

1,2,3,10 107

QUARTET

2,1,3,10 1,110

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 13.5

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

3,8,11/1,2,3 1,760

8TH DOUBLE

8/1 30.5

8/2 63

SIX UP

2,5/5,10/4,5/1,7/8,11/1,2 3,822

5/5/4/7/8/2 55,876

2 [K Teetan]

TREBLE

7/8/1 149

7/8/2 408