Happy Valley · 2020-01-15
Race 3
Race 3 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-15 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. HAPPY GOOD GUYS, ridden by S De Sousa and trained by P F Yiu, won by 2-1/4, with WINNING WAYS second and OVERSUBSCRIBED third. The 2.9 favourite FIRE BALL finished 8th.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS B 0.56.87 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) S De Sousa · P F Yiu | S De Sousa | P F Yiu | 11 | 7.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 9 | WINNING WAYS H/TT B Shinn · C S Shum | B Shinn | C S Shum | 12 | 9.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 11 | OVERSUBSCRIBED H/XB M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 5 | 13.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 4 | GUNNAR TT L Hewitson · C Fownes | L Hewitson | C Fownes | 8 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 2 | PRECIOUS SWEETIE H/TT M L Yeung · L Ho | M L Yeung | L Ho | 3 | 15.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | GOUTEN OF GARO B/TT A Badel · D E Ferraris | A Badel | D E Ferraris | 2 | 4.8 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | GALAXY EMPEROR H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 1 | 32.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 5 | FIRE BALL J Moreira · C H Yip | J Moreira | C H Yip | 4 | 2.9 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | WE THE SOUTH B/TT1 N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 6 | 74.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 1 | MEGA RED B H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 10 | 88.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 3 | EVERBRAVE C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 9 | 12.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | LOOK ERAS B/XB1/TT2 K H Chan · Y S Tsui | K H Chan | Y S Tsui | 7 | 13.0 | 8-1/4 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | GOUTEN OF GARO | 20.1% | 4.98 | 6 |
| 2 | 12 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS | 16.9% | 5.93 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | FIRE BALL | 15.5% | 6.44 | 8 |
| 4 | 2 | PRECIOUS SWEETIE | 10.9% | 9.19 | 5 |
| 5 | 4 | GUNNAR | 9.6% | 10.39 | 4 |
| 6 | 9 | WINNING WAYS | 7.7% | 13.02 | 2 |
| 7 | 3 | EVERBRAVE | 7.3% | 13.70 | 11 |
| 8 | 11 | OVERSUBSCRIBED | 4.3% | 23.36 | 3 |
| 9 | 1 | MEGA RED | 2.9% | 35.00 | 10 |
| 10 | 8 | GALAXY EMPEROR | 2.3% | 44.42 | 7 |
| 11 | 7 | LOOK ERAS | 1.7% | 59.27 | 12 |
| 12 | 6 | WE THE SOUTH | 0.9% | 106.83 | 9 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
12 78.5
PLACE
9 29
11 40.5
12 23
QUINELLA
9,12 280
QUINELLA PLACE
9,11 236
9,12 76.5
11,12 145
TIERCE
12,9,11 4,877
TRIO
9,11,12 945
FIRST 4
4,9,11,12 2,524
QUARTET
12,9,11,4 52,110
2ND DOUBLE
12/9 82
12/12 339.5
All pools (1 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 21.5
A3 —
A2 —