跑馬地 · 2020-01-15
第 3場
2020-01-15跑馬地第3場，Class 4，途程1000米，跑道評為GOOD。由S De Sousa策騎、P F Yiu訓練的HAPPY GOOD GUYS勝出，贏出2-1/4。WINNING WAYS獲得亞軍；OVERSUBSCRIBED獲得季軍。2.9倍大熱門FIRE BALL跑獲第8名。
賽果
| 名次 | No. | 馬名 | 騎師 | 練馬師 | 檔位 | 獨贏賠率 | 馬距 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 12 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS B 0.56.87 ▶ 重播 （在新分頁開啟） S De Sousa · P F Yiu | S De Sousa | P F Yiu | 11 | 7.8 | 2-1/4 |
| 2 | 9 | WINNING WAYS H/TT B Shinn · C S Shum | B Shinn | C S Shum | 12 | 9.4 | 2-1/4 |
| 3 | 11 | OVERSUBSCRIBED H/XB M F Poon · D J Hall | M F Poon | D J Hall | 5 | 13.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 4 | 4 | GUNNAR TT L Hewitson · C Fownes | L Hewitson | C Fownes | 8 | 12.0 | 3-3/4 |
| 5 | 2 | PRECIOUS SWEETIE H/TT M L Yeung · L Ho | M L Yeung | L Ho | 3 | 15.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 10 | GOUTEN OF GARO B/TT A Badel · D E Ferraris | A Badel | D E Ferraris | 2 | 4.8 | 4-1/2 |
| 7 | 8 | GALAXY EMPEROR H/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz | K Teetan | A S Cruz | 1 | 32.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 5 | FIRE BALL J Moreira · C H Yip | J Moreira | C H Yip | 4 | 2.9 | 6-1/2 |
| 9 | 6 | WE THE SOUTH B/TT1 N Callan · J Moore | N Callan | J Moore | 6 | 74.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 10 | 1 | MEGA RED B H N Wong · C W Chang | H N Wong | C W Chang | 10 | 88.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 11 | 3 | EVERBRAVE C Y Ho · K L Man | C Y Ho | K L Man | 9 | 12.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 7 | LOOK ERAS B/XB1/TT2 K H Chan · Y S Tsui | K H Chan | Y S Tsui | 7 | 13.0 | 8-1/4 |
賽果形勢
模型評分
| 排名 | No. | 馬名 | 勝出概率 | 評估賠率 | 名次 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | GOUTEN OF GARO | 20.1% | 4.98 | 6 |
| 2 | 12 | HAPPY GOOD GUYS | 16.9% | 5.93 | 1 |
| 3 | 5 | FIRE BALL | 15.5% | 6.44 | 8 |
| 4 | 2 | PRECIOUS SWEETIE | 10.9% | 9.19 | 5 |
| 5 | 4 | GUNNAR | 9.6% | 10.39 | 4 |
| 6 | 9 | WINNING WAYS | 7.7% | 13.02 | 2 |
| 7 | 3 | EVERBRAVE | 7.3% | 13.70 | 11 |
| 8 | 11 | OVERSUBSCRIBED | 4.3% | 23.36 | 3 |
| 9 | 1 | MEGA RED | 2.9% | 35.00 | 10 |
| 10 | 8 | GALAXY EMPEROR | 2.3% | 44.42 | 7 |
| 11 | 7 | LOOK ERAS | 1.7% | 59.27 | 12 |
| 12 | 6 | WE THE SOUTH | 0.9% | 106.83 | 9 |
模型對市場
每點代表一匹馬：橫軸為模型概率，縱軸為市場隱含概率。點落在虛線上代表兩者一致；金圈為實際頭馬。
評分僅為統計分析估算，並非投注建議——回測顯示模型對香港獨贏市場並無盈利優勢。 模型原理 →
派彩
WIN
12 78.5
PLACE
9 29
11 40.5
12 23
QUINELLA
9,12 280
QUINELLA PLACE
9,11 236
9,12 76.5
11,12 145
TIERCE
12,9,11 4,877
TRIO
9,11,12 945
FIRST 4
4,9,11,12 2,524
QUARTET
12,9,11,4 52,110
2ND DOUBLE
12/9 82
12/12 339.5
全部彩池（另 1 項）
3 PICK 1
A1 21.5
A3 —
A2 —