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Happy Valley · 2020-01-15

Race 8

Class 3 GOOD 1000m Course C+3 11 runners

Race 8 at Happy Valley on 2020-01-15 was Class 3 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. HONG KONG WIN, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 2-3/4, with G UNIT second and HARMONY AND RICH third. The 2.2 favourite FLYING GENIUS finished 4th.

Result

Official · 0.56.31
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 HONG KONG WIN B 0.56.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 6 3.0 2-3/4
2 11 G UNIT G van Niekerk · J Moore 1 7.3 2-3/4
3 3 HARMONY AND RICH H T Piccone · W Y So 8 11.0 3
4 6 FLYING GENIUS TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 4 2.2 4-1/2
5 1 HEART CONQUERED XB S De Sousa · R Gibson 5 10.0 5-1/4
6 12 THE RUNNER B L Hewitson · D J Whyte 2 110.0 6
7 5 MASSIVE POCKET XB C Y Ho · K W Lui 11 16.0 6-1/4
8 10 BEAUT BEAUT H/V A Badel · L Ho 12 81.0 6-3/4
9 2 JUMBO HAPPINESS N Callan · C Fownes 7 47.0 7
10 9 UNIQUE TREASURE XB-/H M L Yeung · K H Ting 3 95.0 12-1/4
11 4 THE WEATHERMAN P- K C Leung · D J Whyte 10 222.0 16
7 ALLIED AGILITY M Chadwick · P F Yiu

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. HONG KONG WIN2. G UNIT+2.75L3. HARMONY AND RICH+3L4. FLYING GENIUS+4.5L5. HEART CONQUERED+5.25L6. THE RUNNER+6L7. MASSIVE POCKET+6.25L8. BEAUT BEAUT+6.75L9. JUMBO HAPPINESS+7L10. UNIQUE TREASURE+12.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick G UNIT (27.3%) finished 2nd — the winner HONG KONG WIN was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 G UNIT 27.3% 3.66 2
2 8 HONG KONG WIN 22.1% 4.52 1
3 6 FLYING GENIUS 15.1% 6.60 4
4 1 HEART CONQUERED 11.2% 8.90 5
5 3 HARMONY AND RICH 6.5% 15.32 3
6 5 MASSIVE POCKET 5.8% 17.30 7
7 2 JUMBO HAPPINESS 4.3% 23.32 9
8 12 THE RUNNER 2.1% 47.13 6
9 10 BEAUT BEAUT 2.0% 49.22 8
10 9 UNIQUE TREASURE 1.8% 54.89 10
11 4 THE WEATHERMAN 1.6% 63.40 11
G UNITHONG KONG WIN — wonFLYING GENIUSHEART CONQUEREDHARMONY AND RICHMASSIVE POCKETJUMBO HAPPINESSTHE RUNNERBEAUT BEAUTUNIQUE TREASURETHE WEATHERMAN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 30.5

PLACE

3 24

8 13

11 17

QUINELLA

8,11 107

QUINELLA PLACE

3,8 69.5

3,11 86

8,11 34

TIERCE

8,11,3 1,129

TRIO

3,8,11 248

FIRST 4

3,6,8,11 73

QUARTET

8,11,3,6 2,118

3 PICK 1

A2

A3

A1 13

All pools (1 more)

7TH DOUBLE

7/8 197

7/11 82