Sha Tin · 2020-01-27
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-27 was Group 3 over 1800m, run on GOOD going. EXULTANT, ridden by Z Purton and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-1/2, with GLORIOUS DRAGON second and DOCTOR GEOFF third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.5 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | EXULTANT Closed strongly XB/TT 1.46.01 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · A S Cruz | Z Purton | A S Cruz | 6 | 2.5 | 1-1/2 |
| 2 | 11 | GLORIOUS DRAGON Closed strongly XB A Badel · A T Millard | A Badel | A T Millard | 10 | 10.0 | 1-1/2 |
| 3 | 5 | DOCTOR GEOFF Closed strongly M Chadwick · K W Lui | M Chadwick | K W Lui | 1 | 9.3 | 1-1/2 |
| 4 | 10 | CHEFANO Closed strongly CP K Teetan · J Moore | K Teetan | J Moore | 3 | 11.0 | 2-1/4 |
| 5 | 6 | EAGLE WAY Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · J Moore | M F Poon | J Moore | 5 | 56.0 | 2-1/2 |
| 6 | 4 | SIMPLY BRILLIANT XB K C Leung · F C Lor | K C Leung | F C Lor | 4 | 101.0 | 3 |
| 7 | 2 | DARK DREAM Led early B/TT1 S De Sousa · F C Lor | S De Sousa | F C Lor | 8 | 20.0 | 5-1/2 |
| 8 | 9 | HO HO KHAN Closed strongly B J Moreira · D J Hall | J Moreira | D J Hall | 9 | 8.6 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 8 | HARMONY VICTORY Closed strongly SR/TT C Y Ho · C S Shum | C Y Ho | C S Shum | 2 | 4.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 7 | SACRED CAPITAL P2 J Spencer · J Lau | J Spencer | J Lau | 7 | 11.0 | 7-1/2 |
| — | 3 | TIME WARP T Piccone · A S Cruz | T Piccone | A S Cruz | — | — | — |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1 | EXULTANT | 27.2% | 3.67 | 1 |
| 2 | 10 | CHEFANO | 17.5% | 5.73 | 4 |
| 3 | 8 | HARMONY VICTORY | 14.5% | 6.89 | 9 |
| 4 | 9 | HO HO KHAN | 9.2% | 10.85 | 8 |
| 5 | 11 | GLORIOUS DRAGON | 8.2% | 12.21 | 2 |
| 6 | 7 | SACRED CAPITAL | 7.3% | 13.68 | 10 |
| 7 | 2 | DARK DREAM | 5.8% | 17.22 | 7 |
| 8 | 5 | DOCTOR GEOFF | 5.5% | 18.20 | 3 |
| 9 | 6 | EAGLE WAY | 2.4% | 41.62 | 5 |
| 10 | 4 | SIMPLY BRILLIANT | 2.4% | 42.53 | 6 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
1 25.5
PLACE
1 13.5
5 25.5
11 28
QUINELLA
1,11 134
QUINELLA PLACE
1,5 47.5
1,11 52
5,11 135
TIERCE
1,11,5 1,542
TRIO
1,5,11 382
FIRST 4
1,5,10,11 528
QUARTET
1,11,5,10 6,164
3 PICK 1
A1 19.5
A2 —
A3 —
All pools (1 more)
3RD DOUBLE
1/1 82
1/11 55