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Sha Tin · 2020-01-27

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-27 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. GREAT TREASURE, ridden by T Piccone and trained by Y S Tsui, won by SH, with SAM'S LOVE second and KING DRAGON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.5 favourite BETTER CHOICE finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.22.66
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 GREAT TREASURE Closed strongly 1.22.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) T Piccone · Y S Tsui 1 6.5 SH
2 4 SAM'S LOVE Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C H Yip 9 12.0 SH
3 8 KING DRAGON Closed strongly S De Sousa · K L Man 3 7.2 N
4 13 IRON KING Closed strongly A Badel · C H Yip 8 10.0 1
5 3 SKYEY SUPREME Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 4 34.0 1-3/4
6 6 SPRINT FORWARD CP/XB/TT B Shinn · J Moore 10 4.8 2-1/4
7 5 BETTER CHOICE K Teetan · D J Whyte 7 4.5 2-1/2
8 7 HAPPY TANGO Closed strongly XB1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 12 147.0 2-3/4
9 11 YES WE CAN XB1/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 5 31.0 3-1/4
10 2 FORTUNE BRILLIANT M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 6 7.3 4
11 12 COPARTNER ERA Closed strongly B K C Leung · W Y So 13 286.0 4-1/4
12 10 SNOW AIRJET B1 H W Lai · P F Yiu 2 21.0 5
13 9 LOTUS BREEZE Closed strongly B/XB/TT T H So · W Y So 14 158.0 5-1/2
14 14 MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE Led early P J Moreira · J Size 11 21.0 8-1/4
0 PRO FIT H N Wong · T P Yung

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GREAT TREASURE2. SAM'S LOVE+0.1L3. KING DRAGON+0.05L4. IRON KING+1L5. SKYEY SUPREME+1.75L6. SPRINT FORWARD+2.25L7. BETTER CHOICE+2.5L8. HAPPY TANGO+2.75L9. YES WE CAN+3.25L10. FORTUNE BRILLIANT+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE (17.1%) finished 14th — the winner GREAT TREASURE was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 14 MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE 17.1% 5.86 14
2 8 KING DRAGON 13.5% 7.39 3
3 5 BETTER CHOICE 13.4% 7.45 7
4 4 SAM'S LOVE 12.2% 8.21 2
5 2 FORTUNE BRILLIANT 11.7% 8.56 10
6 6 SPRINT FORWARD 10.6% 9.45 6
7 13 IRON KING 5.0% 19.96 4
8 1 GREAT TREASURE 4.7% 21.35 1
9 7 HAPPY TANGO 2.8% 36.35 8
10 11 YES WE CAN 2.7% 37.03 9
11 10 SNOW AIRJET 2.7% 37.32 12
12 3 SKYEY SUPREME 1.7% 59.37 5
13 9 LOTUS BREEZE 1.1% 94.02 13
14 12 COPARTNER ERA 1.0% 103.87 11
MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAEKING DRAGONBETTER CHOICESAM'S LOVEFORTUNE BRILLIANTSPRINT FORWARDIRON KINGGREAT TREASURE — wonHAPPY TANGOYES WE CANSNOW AIRJETSKYEY SUPREMELOTUS BREEZECOPARTNER ERA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 65

PLACE

1 22

4 41.5

8 20.5

QUINELLA

1,4 435.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 128

1,8 84

4,8 172

TIERCE

1,4,8 5,620

TRIO

1,4,8 992

FIRST 4

1,4,8,13 1,766

QUARTET

1,4,8,13 38,993

3 PICK 1

A2 21.5

A3

A1

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

11/1 579

11/4 236