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Sha Tin · 2020-01-27

Race 6

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.66
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GREAT TREASURE Closed strongly 1.22.66 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) T Piccone · Y S Tsui 1 6.5 SH
2 0 SAM'S LOVE Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C H Yip 9 12.0 SH
3 0 KING DRAGON Closed strongly S De Sousa · K L Man 3 7.2 N
4 0 IRON KING Closed strongly A Badel · C H Yip 8 10.0 1
5 0 SKYEY SUPREME Closed strongly TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 4 34.0 1-3/4
6 0 SPRINT FORWARD CP/XB/TT B Shinn · J Moore 10 4.8 2-1/4
7 0 BETTER CHOICE K Teetan · D J Whyte 7 4.5 2-1/2
8 0 HAPPY TANGO Closed strongly XB1 L Hewitson · D J Whyte 12 147.0 2-3/4
9 0 YES WE CAN XB1/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 5 31.0 3-1/4
10 0 FORTUNE BRILLIANT M Chadwick · P O'Sullivan 6 7.3 4
11 0 COPARTNER ERA Closed strongly B K C Leung · W Y So 13 286.0 4-1/4
12 0 SNOW AIRJET B1 H W Lai · P F Yiu 2 21.0 5
13 0 LOTUS BREEZE Closed strongly B/XB/TT T H So · W Y So 14 158.0 5-1/2
14 0 MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE Led early P J Moreira · J Size 11 21.0 8-1/4
— 0 PRO FIT H N Wong · T P Yung — — —

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-27 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. GREAT TREASURE, ridden by T Piccone and trained by Y S Tsui, won by SH, with SAM'S LOVE second and KING DRAGON third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 4.5 favourite BETTER CHOICE finished 7th.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GREAT TREASURE—2. SAM'S LOVE+0.1L3. KING DRAGON+0.05L4. IRON KING+1L5. SKYEY SUPREME+1.75L6. SPRINT FORWARD+2.25L7. BETTER CHOICE+2.5L8. HAPPY TANGO+2.75L9. YES WE CAN+3.25L10. FORTUNE BRILLIANT+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE (17.1%) finished 14th — the winner GREAT TREASURE was rated #8. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAE 17.1% 5.86 14
2 0 KING DRAGON 13.5% 7.39 3
3 0 BETTER CHOICE 13.4% 7.45 7
4 0 SAM'S LOVE 12.2% 8.21 2
5 0 FORTUNE BRILLIANT 11.7% 8.56 10
6 0 SPRINT FORWARD 10.6% 9.45 6
7 0 IRON KING 5.0% 19.96 4
8 0 GREAT TREASURE 4.7% 21.35 1
9 0 HAPPY TANGO 2.8% 36.35 8
10 0 YES WE CAN 2.7% 37.03 9
11 0 SNOW AIRJET 2.7% 37.32 12
12 0 SKYEY SUPREME 1.7% 59.37 5
13 0 LOTUS BREEZE 1.1% 94.02 13
14 0 COPARTNER ERA 1.0% 103.87 11
MISCHIEVOUS SUNDAEKING DRAGONBETTER CHOICESAM'S LOVEFORTUNE BRILLIANTSPRINT FORWARDIRON KINGGREAT TREASURE — wonHAPPY TANGOYES WE CANSNOW AIRJETSKYEY SUPREMELOTUS BREEZECOPARTNER ERA

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 65

PLACE

1 22

4 41.5

8 20.5

QUINELLA

1,4 435.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,4 128

1,8 84

4,8 172

TIERCE

1,4,8 5,620

TRIO

1,4,8 992

FIRST 4

1,4,8,13 1,766

QUARTET

1,4,8,13 38,993

3 PICK 1

A2 21.5

A1 —

A3 —

All pools (1 more)

5TH DOUBLE

11/1 579

11/4 236