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Sha Tin · 2020-01-27

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.22.58
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 SUNSHINE WARRIOR Closed strongly CP/TT 1.22.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A S Cruz 4 2.9 1-3/4
2 0 RICH AND LUCKY Closed strongly Z Purton · L Ho 1 3.5 1-3/4
3 0 FUN TIMES Closed strongly B M F Poon · A T Millard 2 3.8 2
4 0 MISSION SMART Closed strongly K C Leung · T P Yung 5 17.0 3-1/2
5 0 WINNING TOGETHER Closed strongly B/TT N Callan · C W Chang 13 10.0 3-1/2
6 0 FAMILY LEADER Closed strongly B/H L Hewitson · C Fownes 12 139.0 4-1/4
7 0 SKY TREASURE H H T Mo · Y S Tsui 7 91.0 4-1/4
8 0 LEADING FORTUNE P-/B1 R Moore · J Size 10 129.0 5-1/2
9 0 THE ABRAXAS B H N Wong · Y S Tsui 14 46.0 8-1/4
10 0 COOLCELEB B/TT K H Chan · T P Yung 6 81.0 9-3/4
11 0 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S Led early B1/H1 M L Yeung · F C Lor 9 23.0 10
12 0 GOLDEN MISSION Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · R Gibson 11 16.0 10-1/2
13 0 SOCKET ELITE TT1 H W Lai · C H Yip 3 468.0 11-3/4
14 0 CAMFORD MAGIC T H So · W Y So 8 629.0 16

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-27 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SUNSHINE WARRIOR, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-3/4, with RICH AND LUCKY second and FUN TIMES third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUNSHINE WARRIOR—2. RICH AND LUCKY+1.75L3. FUN TIMES+2L4. MISSION SMART+3.5L5. WINNING TOGETHER+3.5L6. FAMILY LEADER+4.25L7. SKY TREASURE+4.25L8. LEADING FORTUNE+5.5L9. THE ABRAXAS+8.25L10. COOLCELEB+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick RICH AND LUCKY (31.9%) finished 2nd — the winner SUNSHINE WARRIOR was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 RICH AND LUCKY 31.9% 3.14 2
2 0 SUNSHINE WARRIOR 22.1% 4.52 1
3 0 FUN TIMES 13.5% 7.43 3
4 0 WINNING TOGETHER 9.2% 10.82 5
5 0 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 3.8% 26.03 11
6 0 MISSION SMART 3.8% 26.19 4
7 0 THE ABRAXAS 3.5% 28.26 9
8 0 GOLDEN MISSION 3.4% 29.77 12
9 0 FAMILY LEADER 2.8% 35.31 6
10 0 SKY TREASURE 2.3% 44.42 7
11 0 LEADING FORTUNE 1.4% 69.56 8
12 0 COOLCELEB 1.4% 70.70 10
13 0 SOCKET ELITE 0.4% 247.54 13
14 0 CAMFORD MAGIC 0.4% 255.96 14
RICH AND LUCKYSUNSHINE WARRIOR — wonFUN TIMESWINNING TOGETHERALL FOR ST PAUL'SMISSION SMARTTHE ABRAXASGOLDEN MISSIONFAMILY LEADERSKY TREASURELEADING FORTUNECOOLCELEBSOCKET ELITECAMFORD MAGIC

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 29

PLACE

1 13

2 15

7 13.5

QUINELLA

1,2 52.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 22.5

1,7 26.5

2,7 30.5

TIERCE

1,2,7 294

TRIO

1,2,7 56

FIRST 4

1,2,6,7 144

QUARTET

1,2,7,6 2,113

2ND DOUBLE

3/1 102

3/2 16

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 —

A1 16

A3 —