Skip to content

HKJC Guru is an independent statistics service and is not affiliated with, endorsed by, or connected to The Hong Kong Jockey Club.

Sha Tin · 2020-01-27

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-27 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. SUNSHINE WARRIOR, ridden by J Moreira and trained by A S Cruz, won by 1-3/4, with RICH AND LUCKY second and FUN TIMES third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.9 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.58
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 1 SUNSHINE WARRIOR Closed strongly CP/TT 1.22.58 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · A S Cruz 4 2.9 1-3/4
2 2 RICH AND LUCKY Closed strongly Z Purton · L Ho 1 3.5 1-3/4
3 7 FUN TIMES Closed strongly B M F Poon · A T Millard 2 3.8 2
4 6 MISSION SMART Closed strongly K C Leung · T P Yung 5 17.0 3-1/2
5 9 WINNING TOGETHER Closed strongly B/TT N Callan · C W Chang 13 10.0 3-1/2
6 10 FAMILY LEADER Closed strongly B/H L Hewitson · C Fownes 12 139.0 4-1/4
7 8 SKY TREASURE H H T Mo · Y S Tsui 7 91.0 4-1/4
8 4 LEADING FORTUNE P-/B1 R Moore · J Size 10 129.0 5-1/2
9 14 THE ABRAXAS B H N Wong · Y S Tsui 14 46.0 8-1/4
10 3 COOLCELEB B/TT K H Chan · T P Yung 6 81.0 9-3/4
11 5 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S Led early B1/H1 M L Yeung · F C Lor 9 23.0 10
12 11 GOLDEN MISSION Closed strongly TT M Chadwick · R Gibson 11 16.0 10-1/2
13 12 SOCKET ELITE TT1 H W Lai · C H Yip 3 468.0 11-3/4
14 13 CAMFORD MAGIC T H So · W Y So 8 629.0 16

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUNSHINE WARRIOR2. RICH AND LUCKY+1.75L3. FUN TIMES+2L4. MISSION SMART+3.5L5. WINNING TOGETHER+3.5L6. FAMILY LEADER+4.25L7. SKY TREASURE+4.25L8. LEADING FORTUNE+5.5L9. THE ABRAXAS+8.25L10. COOLCELEB+9.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick RICH AND LUCKY (31.9%) finished 2nd — the winner SUNSHINE WARRIOR was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 2 RICH AND LUCKY 31.9% 3.14 2
2 1 SUNSHINE WARRIOR 22.1% 4.52 1
3 7 FUN TIMES 13.5% 7.43 3
4 9 WINNING TOGETHER 9.2% 10.82 5
5 5 ALL FOR ST PAUL'S 3.8% 26.03 11
6 6 MISSION SMART 3.8% 26.19 4
7 14 THE ABRAXAS 3.5% 28.26 9
8 11 GOLDEN MISSION 3.4% 29.77 12
9 10 FAMILY LEADER 2.8% 35.31 6
10 8 SKY TREASURE 2.3% 44.42 7
11 4 LEADING FORTUNE 1.4% 69.56 8
12 3 COOLCELEB 1.4% 70.70 10
13 12 SOCKET ELITE 0.4% 247.54 13
14 13 CAMFORD MAGIC 0.4% 255.96 14
RICH AND LUCKYSUNSHINE WARRIOR — wonFUN TIMESWINNING TOGETHERALL FOR ST PAUL'SMISSION SMARTTHE ABRAXASGOLDEN MISSIONFAMILY LEADERSKY TREASURELEADING FORTUNECOOLCELEBSOCKET ELITECAMFORD MAGIC

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

1 29

PLACE

1 13

2 15

7 13.5

QUINELLA

1,2 52.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 22.5

1,7 26.5

2,7 30.5

TIERCE

1,2,7 294

TRIO

1,2,7 56

FIRST 4

1,2,6,7 144

QUARTET

1,2,7,6 2,113

2ND DOUBLE

3/1 102

3/2 16

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3

A1 16

A2