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Sha Tin · 2020-01-27

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-27 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. ASSIMILATE, ridden by Z Purton and trained by K H Ting, won by N, with SEATTLE CHOICE second and LOOKING GOOD third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 3.1 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.22.09
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 9 ASSIMILATE Closed strongly B/TT 1.22.09 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · K H Ting 6 3.1 N
2 11 SEATTLE CHOICE Closed strongly K Teetan · A T Millard 7 5.3 N
3 12 LOOKING GOOD B K H Chan · F C Lor 4 14.0 1/2
4 1 DRAGON GENERAL Closed strongly B-/TT K C Leung · Y S Tsui 1 39.0 1/2
5 6 LOBO'S LEGEND Closed strongly S De Sousa · D E Ferraris 11 30.0 1-1/4
6 4 TAKING AIM Led early J Moreira · J Moore 3 5.1 1-3/4
7 10 HALL OF CHAMP Closed strongly M Chadwick · D J Hall 9 123.0 2
8 3 RACING FIGHTER Closed strongly TT T H So · C H Yip 14 168.0 2-1/4
9 13 FALCON TURBO B A Badel · D J Whyte 2 9.9 2-1/2
10 8 BEAUTY RUSH V1 R Moore · J Size 12 19.0 3-1/4
11 7 THE HULK XB/B1/TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 5 6.1 3-1/2
12 2 NOBLE STEED Closed strongly J Spencer · K W Lui 13 26.0 5-1/2
13 14 HANG'S DECISION B/H H W Lai · W Y So 10 111.0 5-3/4
14 5 GOLDEN SPECTRUM TT T Piccone · A S Cruz 8 104.0 6-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ASSIMILATE2. SEATTLE CHOICE+0.05L3. LOOKING GOOD+0.5L4. DRAGON GENERAL+0.5L5. LOBO'S LEGEND+1.25L6. TAKING AIM+1.75L7. HALL OF CHAMP+2L8. RACING FIGHTER+2.25L9. FALCON TURBO+2.5L10. BEAUTY RUSH+3.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick TAKING AIM (22.9%) finished 6th — the winner ASSIMILATE was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 4 TAKING AIM 22.9% 4.37 6
2 9 ASSIMILATE 17.7% 5.65 1
3 13 FALCON TURBO 12.6% 7.91 9
4 8 BEAUTY RUSH 7.1% 14.08 10
5 12 LOOKING GOOD 7.1% 14.18 3
6 11 SEATTLE CHOICE 7.0% 14.35 2
7 6 LOBO'S LEGEND 6.9% 14.45 5
8 7 THE HULK 5.1% 19.45 11
9 5 GOLDEN SPECTRUM 4.2% 23.69 14
10 2 NOBLE STEED 4.1% 24.40 12
11 10 HALL OF CHAMP 2.0% 49.22 7
12 3 RACING FIGHTER 1.3% 75.00 8
13 14 HANG'S DECISION 1.1% 92.22 13
14 1 DRAGON GENERAL 0.8% 127.70 4
TAKING AIMASSIMILATE — wonFALCON TURBOBEAUTY RUSHLOOKING GOODSEATTLE CHOICELOBO'S LEGENDTHE HULKGOLDEN SPECTRUMNOBLE STEEDHALL OF CHAMPRACING FIGHTERHANG'S DECISIONDRAGON GENERAL

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

9 31

PLACE

9 13.5

11 20.5

12 48.5

QUINELLA

9,11 104.5

QUINELLA PLACE

9,11 39

9,12 97.5

11,12 165

TIERCE

9,11,12 2,395

TRIO

9,11,12 631

FIRST 4

1,9,11,12 4,923

QUARTET

9,11,12,1 53,432

3 PICK 1

A3

A2

A1 19.5

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

1/9 52

1/11 24.5