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Sha Tin · 2020-01-27

Race 11

Class 3 GOOD 1200m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 11 at Sha Tin on 2020-01-27 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SUPER WEALTHY, ridden by A Badel and trained by D J Whyte, won by 1, with BALLISTIC KING second and STAR LUCK third. The 2.1 favourite LUCKY MORE finished 5th.

Result

Official · 1.09.06
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 2 SUPER WEALTHY 1.09.06 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) A Badel · D J Whyte 9 3.6 1
2 3 BALLISTIC KING S De Sousa · K H Ting 4 19.0 1
3 14 STAR LUCK H N Wong · F C Lor 1 61.0 2-1/2
4 6 TAKE WHAT YOU NEED B B Shinn · J Moore 6 9.0 4-1/4
5 1 LUCKY MORE Z Purton · C S Shum 13 2.1 4-3/4
6 10 ELIGERE CP1 M Chadwick · Y S Tsui 14 248.0 6
7 11 MERRYGOWIN B T H So · P O'Sullivan 8 82.0 6-1/2
8 7 INFINITY ENDEAVOUR P/TT K Teetan · J Size 3 44.0 7
9 13 MR PICASSO B M F Poon · D J Hall 11 218.0 8-1/4
10 4 ALL IN MIND XB/TT J Moreira · A S Cruz 5 4.8 8-1/2
11 8 PURE LEGEND C Y Ho · C Fownes 2 65.0 10
12 5 SUPER WISE H/TT K H Chan · K L Man 10 64.0 10-1/4
13 9 COPARTNER SPIRIT H/XB H T Mo · R Gibson 12 522.0 12-1/4
14 12 CHAMPION PRIDE TT L Hewitson · D E Ferraris 7 268.0 21-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SUPER WEALTHY2. BALLISTIC KING+1L3. STAR LUCK+2.5L4. TAKE WHAT YOU NEED+4.25L5. LUCKY MORE+4.75L6. ELIGERE+6L7. MERRYGOWIN+6.5L8. INFINITY ENDEAVOUR+7L9. MR PICASSO+8.25L10. ALL IN MIND+8.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick LUCKY MORE (27.7%) finished 5th — the winner SUPER WEALTHY was rated #2. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 LUCKY MORE 27.7% 3.61 5
2 2 SUPER WEALTHY 20.2% 4.94 1
3 4 ALL IN MIND 17.6% 5.67 10
4 3 BALLISTIC KING 12.6% 7.94 2
5 6 TAKE WHAT YOU NEED 5.7% 17.67 4
6 7 INFINITY ENDEAVOUR 4.2% 23.65 8
7 8 PURE LEGEND 3.4% 29.03 11
8 14 STAR LUCK 2.0% 50.72 3
9 13 MR PICASSO 1.7% 57.50 9
10 10 ELIGERE 1.6% 61.44 6
11 5 SUPER WISE 1.1% 91.33 12
12 11 MERRYGOWIN 1.0% 102.33 7
13 12 CHAMPION PRIDE 0.7% 147.04 14
14 9 COPARTNER SPIRIT 0.4% 229.79 13
LUCKY MORESUPER WEALTHY — wonALL IN MINDBALLISTIC KINGTAKE WHAT YOU NEEDINFINITY ENDEAVOURPURE LEGENDSTAR LUCKMR PICASSOELIGERESUPER WISEMERRYGOWINCHAMPION PRIDECOPARTNER SPIRIT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 36.5

PLACE

2 13

3 30.5

14 96

QUINELLA

2,3 247

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 70.5

2,14 236

3,14 716.5

TIERCE

2,3,14 9,986

TRIO

2,3,14 2,987

FIRST 4

2,3,6,14 3,063

QUARTET

2,3,14,6 56,745

10TH DOUBLE

13/2 71

13/3 70

All pools (4 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 13.5

A3

A2

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

7,12,13/2,3,14 652,038

SIX UP

1,4/4,5,14/1,4/9,11/7,13/2,3 859

1/5,14/1/9/13/2 5,073

2 [Z Purton]

TREBLE

9/13/2 290

9/13/3 357