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Sha Tin · 2020-03-01

Race 9

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 9 at Sha Tin on 2020-03-01 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. TOP SCORE, ridden by M F Poon and trained by K W Lui, won by 3/4, with PICKEN second and ULTIMATE GLORY third. The winner led throughout. The 1.5 favourite FARHH ABOVE finished 8th.

Result

Official · 1.21.92
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 8 TOP SCORE Wire to wire B/TT 1.21.92 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M F Poon · K W Lui 8 42.0 3/4
2 9 PICKEN Closed strongly C Schofield · J Size 2 8.8 3/4
3 6 ULTIMATE GLORY Closed strongly V Z Purton · K L Man 9 12.0 1-1/2
4 11 ZHAN JIANG ROCKS Closed strongly TT K C Leung · W Y So 6 69.0 1-3/4
5 12 JOYFUL HEART Closed strongly CP/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 13 5.3 1-3/4
6 10 SMILING CITY P-/CP2/SR2 M Chadwick · D J Whyte 1 62.0 2-3/4
7 13 GOOD FOR YOU B H N Wong · Y S Tsui 4 79.0 3
8 1 FARHH ABOVE Closed strongly XB A Badel · D J Whyte 5 1.5 3-1/4
9 3 PRECISE EXPRESS Closed strongly H W Lai · P F Yiu 11 165.0 3-1/4
10 4 BEAUTY LOYAL B/TT B Shinn · A S Cruz 10 27.0 4
11 7 MARVEL DRAGON TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 3 401.0 4-3/4
12 5 PRANCE DRAGON B/TT1 L Hewitson · A T Millard 14 140.0 9-1/2
13 2 ENDEARING B/TT K H Chan · J Moore 7 19.0 10
14 14 AMAZING LUCK B C Wong · P O'Sullivan 12 94.0 11-1/2

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TOP SCORE2. PICKEN+0.75L3. ULTIMATE GLORY+1.5L4. ZHAN JIANG ROCKS+1.75L5. JOYFUL HEART+1.75L6. SMILING CITY+2.75L7. GOOD FOR YOU+3L8. FARHH ABOVE+3.25L9. PRECISE EXPRESS+3.25L10. BEAUTY LOYAL+4L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick FARHH ABOVE (30.9%) finished 8th — the winner TOP SCORE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 FARHH ABOVE 30.9% 3.24 8
2 12 JOYFUL HEART 22.7% 4.40 5
3 4 BEAUTY LOYAL 8.7% 11.46 10
4 9 PICKEN 8.4% 11.91 2
5 8 TOP SCORE 4.4% 22.80 1
6 11 ZHAN JIANG ROCKS 4.4% 22.89 4
7 2 ENDEARING 4.3% 23.01 13
8 6 ULTIMATE GLORY 4.0% 24.76 3
9 13 GOOD FOR YOU 3.3% 30.07 7
10 10 SMILING CITY 2.4% 42.23 6
11 14 AMAZING LUCK 2.2% 46.34 14
12 3 PRECISE EXPRESS 2.1% 48.03 9
13 5 PRANCE DRAGON 1.7% 60.15 12
14 7 MARVEL DRAGON 0.5% 186.42 11
FARHH ABOVEJOYFUL HEARTBEAUTY LOYALPICKENTOP SCORE — wonZHAN JIANG ROCKSENDEARINGULTIMATE GLORYGOOD FOR YOUSMILING CITYAMAZING LUCKPRECISE EXPRESSPRANCE DRAGONMARVEL DRAGON

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

8 426.5

PLACE

6 26

8 61

9 21.5

QUINELLA

8,9 1,177.5

QUINELLA PLACE

6,8 336.5

6,9 108

8,9 255.5

TIERCE

8,9,6 26,172

TRIO

6,8,9 3,435

FIRST 4

6,8,9,11 15,565

QUARTET

8,9,6,11 372,580

3 PICK 1

A2

A3 55.5

A1

All pools (1 more)

8TH DOUBLE

14/8 3,889.5

14/9 272.5