Sha Tin · 2020-03-01

Race 7

Class 3 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 13 runners

Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2020-03-01 was Class 3 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. CIRCUIT THREE, ridden by C Schofield and trained by A S Cruz, won by N, with GUY DRAGON second and GIFT OF LIFELINE third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.0 favourite.

Result

Official · 1.21.83

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	CIRCUIT THREE Closed strongly B/TT 1.21.83 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · A S Cruz	C Schofield	A S Cruz	1	130 lb	2.0	N
2	4	GUY DRAGON Closed strongly XB/TT Z Purton · W Y So	Z Purton	W Y So	2	128 lb	3.8	N
3	10	GIFT OF LIFELINE Closed strongly B K Teetan · A T Millard	K Teetan	A T Millard	3	120 lb	6.7	N
4	1	SNAP FIT Closed strongly B/TT C Wong · C Fownes	C Wong	C Fownes	6	128 lb	13.0	1
5	13	ALPHA HEDGE Closed strongly CP H N Wong · K W Lui	H N Wong	K W Lui	8	112 lb	129.0	1-1/2
6	6	HARDLY SWEARS H M L Yeung · K H Ting	M L Yeung	K H Ting	4	125 lb	11.0	1-3/4
7	8	GREAT TREASURE Closed strongly B2 H W Lai · Y S Tsui	H W Lai	Y S Tsui	7	121 lb	27.0	2
8	7	INFINITY ENDEAVOUR Closed strongly P/TT N Callan · J Size	N Callan	J Size	10	124 lb	53.0	3-1/2
9	11	FLYING BONUS Led early M Chadwick · C H Yip	M Chadwick	C H Yip	5	119 lb	17.0	4-1/4
10	5	PLANET STAR B L Hewitson · P O'Sullivan	L Hewitson	P O'Sullivan	12	127 lb	73.0	5-1/2
11	14	FRESH POWER B/TT H T Mo · Y S Tsui	H T Mo	Y S Tsui	9	112 lb	156.0	5-3/4
12	3	FORZA ANGEL B- K H Chan · Y S Tsui	K H Chan	Y S Tsui	13	112 lb	158.0	7
13	9	EVEN KEEL H/TT K C Leung · L Ho	K C Leung	L Ho	11	120 lb	409.0	8-1/2
—	0	AWE B Shinn · J Moore	B Shinn	J Moore	—	128 lb	—	—
—	12	RELENTLESS ME A Badel · D J Whyte	A Badel	D J Whyte	—	118 lb	—	—

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick CIRCUIT THREE (27.5%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	2	CIRCUIT THREE	27.5%	3.63	1	2.0
2	4	GUY DRAGON	21.4%	4.68	2	3.8
3	10	GIFT OF LIFELINE	14.6%	6.85	3	6.7
4	6	HARDLY SWEARS	10.9%	9.16	6	11.0
5	1	SNAP FIT	7.9%	12.65	4	13.0
6	11	FLYING BONUS	3.9%	25.54	9	17.0
7	13	ALPHA HEDGE	3.5%	28.32	5	129.0
8	8	GREAT TREASURE	2.9%	35.07	7	27.0
9	7	INFINITY ENDEAVOUR	2.1%	47.29	8	53.0
10	5	PLANET STAR	1.9%	53.07	10	73.0
11	3	FORZA ANGEL	1.5%	65.49	12	158.0
12	14	FRESH POWER	1.3%	75.00	11	156.0
13	9	EVEN KEEL	0.5%	195.77	13	409.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 20.5

PLACE

2 11.5

4 13

10 20

QUINELLA

2,4 41.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,4 18.5

2,10 27

4,10 36

TIERCE

2,4,10 226

TRIO

2,4,10 64

FIRST 4

1,2,4,10 127

QUARTET

2,4,10,1 1,129

2ND DOUBLE TRIO

8,11,14/2,4,10 10,004

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 13.5

6TH DOUBLE

8/2 283

8/4 104.5

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