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Sha Tin · 2020-03-01

Race 1

Class 4 GOOD 1000m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 1 at Sha Tin on 2020-03-01 was Class 4 over 1000m, run on GOOD going. TRUST ME, ridden by Z Purton and trained by C H Yip, won by 3/4, with ZERO HEDGE second and DECISIVE TWELVE third. The 3.7 favourite DECISIVE TWELVE finished 3rd.

Result

Official · 0.56.29
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 TRUST ME B 0.56.29 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · C H Yip 14 3.8 3/4
2 2 ZERO HEDGE PC/XB K H Chan · J Size 6 4.9 3/4
3 5 DECISIVE TWELVE C Y Ho · W Y So 9 3.7 1-1/4
4 9 QIPAO BOSS M F Poon · D J Hall 2 53.0 2-3/4
5 6 FIGHTER BOY K C Leung · P F Yiu 1 10.0 3-1/4
6 12 SWEETLY BABY TT1 B Shinn · C Fownes 4 164.0 3-1/2
7 14 CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN H M L Yeung · L Ho 3 205.0 4
8 13 TANG TREASURE TT K Teetan · D E Ferraris 11 86.0 5-1/4
9 11 SUPER MISSION H W Lai · P F Yiu 13 19.0 5-1/4
10 1 HEALTHY LUCK B N Callan · K L Man 12 6.3 5-1/2
11 7 M M JOHNNY B1 C Schofield · A T Millard 7 10.0 5-3/4
12 10 STOCK LEGEND B/H1 A Badel · K H Ting 8 34.0 7
13 8 PRIME TIME H1 H T Mo · Y S Tsui 5 350.0 8-1/2
14 4 ATHENA XB1/TT1 L Hewitson · C H Yip 10 164.0 9-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TRUST ME2. ZERO HEDGE+0.75L3. DECISIVE TWELVE+1.25L4. QIPAO BOSS+2.75L5. FIGHTER BOY+3.25L6. SWEETLY BABY+3.5L7. CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN+4L8. TANG TREASURE+5.25L9. SUPER MISSION+5.25L10. HEALTHY LUCK+5.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick TRUST ME (20.0%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 TRUST ME 20.0% 5.00 1
2 6 FIGHTER BOY 14.6% 6.83 5
3 2 ZERO HEDGE 12.2% 8.18 2
4 9 QIPAO BOSS 7.1% 14.00 4
5 7 M M JOHNNY 6.5% 15.27 11
6 11 SUPER MISSION 6.5% 15.28 9
7 8 PRIME TIME 6.0% 16.57 13
8 1 HEALTHY LUCK 5.7% 17.55 10
9 5 DECISIVE TWELVE 5.7% 17.66 3
10 12 SWEETLY BABY 5.6% 17.70 6
11 10 STOCK LEGEND 4.2% 23.95 12
12 4 ATHENA 2.4% 42.28 14
13 13 TANG TREASURE 2.3% 42.59 8
14 14 CHUNGHWA JINGSHEN 0.9% 105.48 7
TRUST ME — wonFIGHTER BOYZERO HEDGEQIPAO BOSSM M JOHNNYSUPER MISSIONPRIME TIMEHEALTHY LUCKDECISIVE TWELVESWEETLY BABYSTOCK LEGENDATHENATANG TREASURECHUNGHWA JINGSHEN

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 38.5

PLACE

2 16

3 17

5 16.5

QUINELLA

2,3 84

QUINELLA PLACE

2,3 32.5

2,5 37

3,5 40

TIERCE

3,2,5 599

TRIO

2,3,5 126

FIRST 4

2,3,5,9 1,051

QUARTET

3,2,5,9 12,711

3 PICK 1

A1 24

A3

A2