Sha Tin · 2020-03-01

Race 5

Class 4 GOOD 1600m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 5 at Sha Tin on 2020-03-01 was Class 4 over 1600m, run on GOOD going. EVER LAUGH, ridden by B Shinn and trained by K L Man, won by SH, with SONIC FIGHTER second and MENAGGIO third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite SONIC FIGHTER finished 2nd.

Result

Official · 1.35.51

Pos	No.	Horse	Jockey	Trainer	Draw	Weight	Odds	Margin
1	2	EVER LAUGH Closed strongly B/TT 1.35.51 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) B Shinn · K L Man	B Shinn	K L Man	9	132 lb	4.4	SH
2	1	SONIC FIGHTER Closed strongly B N Callan · P O'Sullivan	N Callan	P O'Sullivan	6	133 lb	3.6	SH
3	9	MENAGGIO Closed strongly H M F Poon · P F Yiu	M F Poon	P F Yiu	4	120 lb	16.0	1-1/2
4	11	PARTY EVERYDAY Closed strongly CP/H/TT Z Purton · A S Cruz	Z Purton	A S Cruz	12	120 lb	6.1	1-1/2
5	13	FANTASTIC BOY Closed strongly B K C Leung · W Y So	K C Leung	W Y So	5	117 lb	44.0	1-1/2
6	5	RIGHTEOUS MATE Closed strongly M Chadwick · A T Millard	M Chadwick	A T Millard	1	124 lb	10.0	2
7	4	HAPPY WIN WIN Closed strongly XB/TT K Teetan · C H Yip	K Teetan	C H Yip	11	124 lb	10.0	2-1/4
8	12	WHO'S HORSE Led early B/TT H W Lai · K H Ting	H W Lai	K H Ting	10	118 lb	100.0	4
9	3	JIMMU SR H T Mo · Y S Tsui	H T Mo	Y S Tsui	8	128 lb	52.0	4-1/4
10	6	HAPPY ICHIBAN P L Hewitson · D J Whyte	L Hewitson	D J Whyte	13	123 lb	70.0	7
11	8	JOY N FUN LEGEND Closed strongly CP1/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung	M L Yeung	T P Yung	7	123 lb	78.0	7
12	10	SWOT TROOPERS WIND H-/B1 H N Wong · D J Hall	H N Wong	D J Hall	14	118 lb	228.0	9-1/4
13	7	INDIGENOUS STAR TT2 C Schofield · C W Chang	C Schofield	C W Chang	2	123 lb	19.0	10-1/2
14	14	SAVVY SEVEN B/TT A Badel · J Moore	A Badel	J Moore	3	117 lb	6.3	ML

Race shape

Beaten lengths

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20

The model's top pick PARTY EVERYDAY (18.5%) finished 4th — the winner EVER LAUGH was rated #7. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.

Rank	No.	Horse	Win %	Rated price	Pos	Final odds
1	11	PARTY EVERYDAY	18.5%	5.40	4	6.1
2	14	SAVVY SEVEN	16.0%	6.24	14	6.3
3	5	RIGHTEOUS MATE	11.3%	8.87	6	10.0
4	1	SONIC FIGHTER	9.7%	10.34	2	3.6
5	7	INDIGENOUS STAR	9.4%	10.64	13	19.0
6	4	HAPPY WIN WIN	8.7%	11.46	7	10.0
7	2	EVER LAUGH	7.1%	14.07	1	4.4
8	9	MENAGGIO	6.3%	15.80	3	16.0
9	13	FANTASTIC BOY	3.7%	27.02	5	44.0
10	3	JIMMU	3.1%	32.64	9	52.0
11	6	HAPPY ICHIBAN	2.7%	37.17	10	70.0
12	12	WHO'S HORSE	1.6%	61.56	8	100.0
13	8	JOY N FUN LEGEND	1.0%	99.35	11	78.0
14	10	SWOT TROOPERS WIND	0.9%	114.81	12	228.0

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

2 44

PLACE

1 16

2 17.5

9 48.5

QUINELLA

1,2 85

QUINELLA PLACE

1,2 34.5

1,9 108

2,9 178

TIERCE

2,1,9 2,921

TRIO

1,2,9 487

FIRST 4

1,2,9,11 712

QUARTET

2,1,9,11 16,754

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A1 —

A2 16.5

All pools (1 more)

4TH DOUBLE

5/1 37

5/2 228.5

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