Sha Tin · 2020-03-01
Race 4
Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-03-01 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. ETERNAL HARVEST, ridden by C Schofield and trained by P F Yiu, won by 2, with BELUGA second and XPONENTIAL third. The 2.6 favourite BELUGA finished 2nd.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | ETERNAL HARVEST 1.09.44 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · P F Yiu | C Schofield | P F Yiu | 5 | 3.5 | 2 |
| 2 | 3 | BELUGA Z Purton · D J Hall | Z Purton | D J Hall | 10 | 2.6 | 2 |
| 3 | 1 | XPONENTIAL XB/B1 M Chadwick · D J Whyte | M Chadwick | D J Whyte | 6 | 6.9 | 2-1/4 |
| 4 | 10 | SPONTANEOUS B Shinn · P O'Sullivan | B Shinn | P O'Sullivan | 13 | 30.0 | 4 |
| 5 | 12 | BRAVE BABY B/TT M F Poon · A S Cruz | M F Poon | A S Cruz | 12 | 60.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 6 | 8 | SPICY GRILL M L Yeung · K W Lui | M L Yeung | K W Lui | 3 | 185.0 | 5 |
| 7 | 2 | CHARITY GRAND B/TT H W Lai · C S Shum | H W Lai | C S Shum | 8 | 58.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 8 | 13 | LEADING FORTUNE B A Badel · J Size | A Badel | J Size | 14 | 11.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 9 | 4 | DOUBLE TAKE N Callan · C Fownes | N Callan | C Fownes | 7 | 203.0 | 5-3/4 |
| 10 | 11 | SUPER EIGHTEEN B C Wong · A T Millard | C Wong | A T Millard | 9 | 27.0 | 6-1/4 |
| 11 | 7 | SO AWESOME H T Mo · Y S Tsui | H T Mo | Y S Tsui | 11 | 238.0 | 6-3/4 |
| 12 | 14 | BABY STORM H/TT K C Leung · L Ho | K C Leung | L Ho | 2 | 9.0 | 7-1/4 |
| 13 | 9 | COOL ACE CP K Teetan · C W Chang | K Teetan | C W Chang | 4 | 12.0 | 7-3/4 |
| 14 | 6 | LUCKY VICTOR TT1 K H Chan · K H Ting | K H Chan | K H Ting | 1 | 159.0 | 12 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 3 | BELUGA | 25.7% | 3.90 | 2 |
| 2 | 5 | ETERNAL HARVEST | 19.7% | 5.08 | 1 |
| 3 | 1 | XPONENTIAL | 14.2% | 7.02 | 3 |
| 4 | 11 | SUPER EIGHTEEN | 7.2% | 13.91 | 10 |
| 5 | 2 | CHARITY GRAND | 7.1% | 14.14 | 7 |
| 6 | 9 | COOL ACE | 6.0% | 16.57 | 13 |
| 7 | 7 | SO AWESOME | 4.2% | 23.89 | 11 |
| 8 | 13 | LEADING FORTUNE | 4.0% | 25.17 | 8 |
| 9 | 10 | SPONTANEOUS | 3.6% | 27.67 | 4 |
| 10 | 14 | BABY STORM | 2.5% | 39.42 | 12 |
| 11 | 12 | BRAVE BABY | 2.3% | 44.29 | 5 |
| 12 | 8 | SPICY GRILL | 1.8% | 56.42 | 6 |
| 13 | 4 | DOUBLE TAKE | 0.9% | 105.62 | 9 |
| 14 | 6 | LUCKY VICTOR | 0.8% | 120.72 | 14 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 35
PLACE
1 19
3 15
5 13.5
QUINELLA
3,5 47
QUINELLA PLACE
1,3 34
1,5 42
3,5 24.5
TIERCE
5,3,1 405
TRIO
1,3,5 79
FIRST 4
1,3,5,10 328
QUARTET
5,3,1,10 4,504
1ST DOUBLE TRIO
7,12,14/1,3,5 87,981
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A1 15
A3 —
A2 —
3RD DOUBLE
7/3 95
7/5 518.5