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Sha Tin · 2020-03-01

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course B+2 14 runners

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-03-01 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. AMAZING CHOCOLATE, ridden by C Schofield and trained by A T Millard, won by 4-3/4, with FAMILY LEADER second and SUPER WINNER third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.0 favourite PERFECT PAIR finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.21.64
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 7 AMAZING CHOCOLATE Closed strongly B2 1.21.64 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) C Schofield · A T Millard 1 11.0 4-3/4
2 14 FAMILY LEADER Closed strongly B/H L Hewitson · C Fownes 9 81.0 4-3/4
3 12 SUPER WINNER Closed strongly H/TT A Badel · C H Yip 11 3.4 4-3/4
4 13 GALAXY EMPEROR Led early H/CP1/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 3 37.0 5
5 11 BRIGHT KID Closed strongly P-/B2/XB2 B Shinn · D J Whyte 6 7.9 5-3/4
6 6 WINSTON'S LAD Closed strongly H/B1 C Y Ho · K W Lui 14 11.0 6-3/4
7 1 PERFECT PAIR CP Z Purton · W Y So 2 3.0 7
8 9 SPEED FAY FAY Closed strongly M L Yeung · T P Yung 5 9.6 7-3/4
9 5 STUNNING IMPACT N Callan · P O'Sullivan 12 99.0 8
10 4 BULLETPROOF M Chadwick · P F Yiu 7 31.0 9-1/4
11 2 LASTING FRIENDSHIP P K C Leung · L Ho 10 16.0 9-1/4
12 3 PRETTY BAUHINIA Closed strongly B H N Wong · Y S Tsui 8 43.0 10-1/2
13 10 FOREVER SHARP TT M F Poon · C S Shum 4 92.0 10-1/2
14 8 SO HAPPY B H W Lai · K L Man 13 191.0 63

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. AMAZING CHOCOLATE2. FAMILY LEADER+4.75L3. SUPER WINNER+4.75L4. GALAXY EMPEROR+5L5. BRIGHT KID+5.75L6. WINSTON'S LAD+6.75L7. PERFECT PAIR+7L8. SPEED FAY FAY+7.75L9. STUNNING IMPACT+8L10. BULLETPROOF+9.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick PERFECT PAIR (34.8%) finished 7th — the winner AMAZING CHOCOLATE was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 1 PERFECT PAIR 34.8% 2.87 7
2 12 SUPER WINNER 10.8% 9.26 3
3 7 AMAZING CHOCOLATE 9.4% 10.62 1
4 10 FOREVER SHARP 8.3% 12.08 13
5 6 WINSTON'S LAD 6.6% 15.11 6
6 2 LASTING FRIENDSHIP 5.9% 16.84 11
7 11 BRIGHT KID 5.8% 17.35 5
8 13 GALAXY EMPEROR 5.2% 19.41 4
9 3 PRETTY BAUHINIA 3.8% 26.62 12
10 9 SPEED FAY FAY 3.4% 29.02 8
11 4 BULLETPROOF 2.5% 39.73 10
12 14 FAMILY LEADER 1.7% 59.19 2
13 5 STUNNING IMPACT 0.9% 110.09 9
14 8 SO HAPPY 0.9% 114.91 14
PERFECT PAIRSUPER WINNERAMAZING CHOCOLATE — wonFOREVER SHARPWINSTON'S LADLASTING FRIENDSHIPBRIGHT KIDGALAXY EMPERORPRETTY BAUHINIASPEED FAY FAYBULLETPROOFFAMILY LEADERSTUNNING IMPACTSO HAPPY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

7 113.5

PLACE

7 35

12 13.5

14 134

QUINELLA

7,14 3,373

QUINELLA PLACE

7,12 75

7,14 966

12,14 257.5

TIERCE

7,14,12 29,941

TRIO

7,12,14 2,735

FIRST 4

7,12,13,14 19,978

QUARTET

7,14,12,13 955,952

2ND DOUBLE

3,9/7 483.5

3,9/14 429

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 37

A1

A2