Sha Tin · 2020-03-22
Race 7
Race 7 at Sha Tin on 2020-03-22 was Class 3 over 1200m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. WELLINGTON, ridden by Z Purton and trained by R Gibson, won by 1, with LARSON second and VICTORIAM third. Victory came as the 1.7 favourite.
Result
| Pos | No. | Horse | Jockey | Trainer | Draw | Odds | Margin |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | WELLINGTON 1.08.55 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · R Gibson | Z Purton | R Gibson | 12 | 1.7 | 1 |
| 2 | 7 | LARSON CP V Borges · J Moore | V Borges | J Moore | 10 | 43.0 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | VICTORIAM J Moreira · K W Lui | J Moreira | K W Lui | 9 | 9.6 | 3 |
| 4 | 1 | KING OF HEARTS B/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz | M Chadwick | A S Cruz | 5 | 55.0 | 4-1/4 |
| 5 | 12 | MONKEY JEWELLERY K Teetan · J Size | K Teetan | J Size | 4 | 52.0 | 5-1/4 |
| 6 | 4 | NAMJONG SINGS B1/TT- G van Niekerk · C S Shum | G van Niekerk | C S Shum | 3 | 7.7 | 5-1/2 |
| 7 | 6 | E STAR H H W Lai · K L Man | H W Lai | K L Man | 6 | 38.0 | 6 |
| 8 | 11 | ETERNAL HARVEST C Schofield · P F Yiu | C Schofield | P F Yiu | 2 | 3.9 | 6-1/4 |
| 9 | 8 | KURPANY TT1 K C Leung · J Moore | K C Leung | J Moore | 8 | 20.0 | 6-1/2 |
| 10 | 3 | STAY CHILL M L Yeung · W Y So | M L Yeung | W Y So | 1 | 524.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 11 | 10 | AFRICAN SKY CP1/TT H N Wong · K H Ting | H N Wong | K H Ting | 7 | 656.0 | 9-3/4 |
| 12 | 9 | LIGHT MY DAY M F Poon · C H Yip | M F Poon | C H Yip | 11 | 365.0 | 13-1/2 |
Race shape
Model ratings
| Rank | No. | Horse | Win % | Rated price | Pos |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 11 | ETERNAL HARVEST | 33.7% | 2.97 | 8 |
| 2 | 5 | WELLINGTON | 29.8% | 3.36 | 1 |
| 3 | 2 | VICTORIAM | 16.5% | 6.04 | 3 |
| 4 | 4 | NAMJONG SINGS | 6.3% | 15.95 | 6 |
| 5 | 1 | KING OF HEARTS | 3.5% | 28.89 | 4 |
| 6 | 6 | E STAR | 3.2% | 31.72 | 7 |
| 7 | 12 | MONKEY JEWELLERY | 2.9% | 34.07 | 5 |
| 8 | 7 | LARSON | 2.1% | 48.55 | 2 |
| 9 | 8 | KURPANY | 1.0% | 97.87 | 9 |
| 10 | 10 | AFRICAN SKY | 0.4% | 226.95 | 11 |
| 11 | 9 | LIGHT MY DAY | 0.4% | 230.87 | 12 |
| 12 | 3 | STAY CHILL | 0.3% | 381.19 | 10 |
Model vs market
Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.
Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →
Dividends
WIN
5 17
PLACE
2 21
5 11.5
7 60.5
QUINELLA
5,7 281.5
QUINELLA PLACE
2,5 30
2,7 272
5,7 80.5
TIERCE
5,7,2 1,690
TRIO
2,5,7 498
FIRST 4
1,2,5,7 1,974
QUARTET
5,7,2,1 20,978
2ND DOUBLE TRIO
2,5,13/2,5,7 31,487
All pools (2 more)
3 PICK 1
A3 —
A1 12
A2 —
6TH DOUBLE
13/5 224.5
13/7 1,140.5