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Sha Tin · 2020-03-22

Race 6

Class 3 GOOD TO FIRM 2000m Course A 14 runners

Race 6 at Sha Tin on 2020-03-22 was Class 3 over 2000m, run on GOOD TO FIRM going. LONDON HALL, ridden by M Chadwick and trained by D J Hall, won by 3/4, with ENRICHMENT second and WINNING DELIGHT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.6 favourite MORE THAN A HORSE finished 4th.

Result

Official · 2.00.43
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 13 LONDON HALL Closed strongly B 2.00.43 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) M Chadwick · D J Hall 1 8.0 3/4
2 2 ENRICHMENT Closed strongly B C Schofield · J Size 4 7.0 3/4
3 5 WINNING DELIGHT Closed strongly TT Z Purton · C Fownes 3 4.2 1-1/2
4 11 MORE THAN A HORSE Closed strongly B/SR J Moreira · D J Whyte 10 3.6 2-1/4
5 8 CHAMPION SUPREME Closed strongly B/TT V Borges · J Moore 9 17.0 4
6 10 STIMULATION Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · A S Cruz 12 15.0 4-1/4
7 1 HIGH REV B/XB G van Niekerk · D J Hall 8 9.7 4-1/2
8 7 TASHIDELEK CP-/B2/TT N Callan · J Moore 13 9.6 5-1/4
9 3 GENEROUS CHARITY Closed strongly B/TT K C Leung · C S Shum 7 277.0 5-1/2
10 4 TIANCHI MONSTER Closed strongly M L Yeung · W Y So 14 203.0 6-1/2
11 9 CLEMENT LEGEND Closed strongly B/TT M F Poon · C S Shum 6 52.0 10-3/4
12 14 GIANT TURTLE Led early SR/TT C Wong · A T Millard 2 80.0 12-1/4
13 12 SUPER FAST CP C Y Ho · K L Man 5 18.0 15-1/4
14 6 HELLO DADDY B B Shinn · K H Ting 11 147.0 23-1/4

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. LONDON HALL—2. ENRICHMENT+0.75L3. WINNING DELIGHT+1.5L4. MORE THAN A HORSE+2.25L5. CHAMPION SUPREME+4L6. STIMULATION+4.25L7. HIGH REV+4.5L8. TASHIDELEK+5.25L9. GENEROUS CHARITY+5.5L10. TIANCHI MONSTER+6.5L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick MORE THAN A HORSE (21.5%) finished 4th — the winner LONDON HALL was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 11 MORE THAN A HORSE 21.5% 4.64 4
2 5 WINNING DELIGHT 15.2% 6.57 3
3 1 HIGH REV 11.2% 8.94 7
4 7 TASHIDELEK 11.1% 9.01 8
5 13 LONDON HALL 9.9% 10.15 1
6 8 CHAMPION SUPREME 6.1% 16.33 5
7 10 STIMULATION 5.7% 17.61 6
8 9 CLEMENT LEGEND 5.3% 18.75 11
9 2 ENRICHMENT 4.0% 24.84 2
10 12 SUPER FAST 3.9% 25.33 13
11 14 GIANT TURTLE 3.0% 32.81 12
12 6 HELLO DADDY 1.3% 75.52 14
13 4 TIANCHI MONSTER 0.8% 119.33 10
14 3 GENEROUS CHARITY 0.8% 126.71 9
MORE THAN A HORSEWINNING DELIGHTHIGH REVTASHIDELEKLONDON HALL — wonCHAMPION SUPREMESTIMULATIONCLEMENT LEGENDENRICHMENTSUPER FASTGIANT TURTLEHELLO DADDYTIANCHI MONSTERGENEROUS CHARITY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

13 80.5

PLACE

2 25.5

5 16

13 26

QUINELLA

2,13 286.5

QUINELLA PLACE

2,5 60.5

2,13 90.5

5,13 78.5

TIERCE

13,2,5 3,241

TRIO

2,5,13 411

FIRST 4

2,5,11,13 315

QUARTET

13,2,5,11 11,991

3 PICK 1

A1 —

A2 —

A3 28.5

All pools (3 more)

5TH DOUBLE

12/2 18

12/13 220.5

TRIPLE TRIO

1,10,11/8,12,13/2,5,13 617,332

TRIPLE TRIO (CONSOLATION)

1,10,11/8,12,13/Any Combination 1,396

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