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Sha Tin · 2020-03-22

Race 3

Class 4 GOOD 1200m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.08.84
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 GOOD LUCK FRIEND CP 1.08.84 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · P F Yiu 2 2.5 1
2 0 YEE CHEONG PEGASUS XB/TT C Schofield · A T Millard 4 2.4 1
3 0 COMPASSION SPIRIT M Chadwick · K L Man 8 11.0 2-3/4
4 0 CHAIRMAN LO B K Teetan · J Size 6 18.0 3-1/4
5 0 GALACTIC XB1 J Moreira · D J Whyte 5 9.3 4-3/4
6 0 SPONTANEOUS B Shinn · P O'Sullivan 7 13.0 5
7 0 TELECOM MISSILE T H So · C H Yip 14 225.0 5-3/4
8 0 SPICY GRILL K C Leung · K W Lui 12 192.0 6-1/2
9 0 SWEETLY BABY TT C Y Ho · C Fownes 13 51.0 7
10 0 BEAUTY ANGEL TT C Wong · A S Cruz 1 48.0 7-1/4
11 0 BEST SMILE TT H N Wong · W Y So 3 30.0 13-1/4
12 0 APOLLOS BOW H W Lai · Y S Tsui 9 389.0 15-1/4
13 0 TANG TREASURE B1/TT V Borges · D E Ferraris 10 247.0 18-1/4
14 0 DASHING GRACE P-/B1/TT M L Yeung · T P Yung 11 572.0 25-1/2

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 3 at Sha Tin on 2020-03-22 was Class 4 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. GOOD LUCK FRIEND, ridden by Z Purton and trained by P F Yiu, won by 1, with YEE CHEONG PEGASUS second and COMPASSION SPIRIT third. The 2.4 favourite YEE CHEONG PEGASUS finished 2nd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. GOOD LUCK FRIEND—2. YEE CHEONG PEGASUS+1L3. COMPASSION SPIRIT+2.75L4. CHAIRMAN LO+3.25L5. GALACTIC+4.75L6. SPONTANEOUS+5L7. TELECOM MISSILE+5.75L8. SPICY GRILL+6.5L9. SWEETLY BABY+7L10. BEAUTY ANGEL+7.25L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick GOOD LUCK FRIEND (28.3%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 GOOD LUCK FRIEND 28.3% 3.54 1
2 0 GALACTIC 24.4% 4.09 5
3 0 YEE CHEONG PEGASUS 21.1% 4.73 2
4 0 SWEETLY BABY 4.8% 20.90 9
5 0 COMPASSION SPIRIT 4.6% 21.67 3
6 0 CHAIRMAN LO 4.2% 23.57 4
7 0 BEAUTY ANGEL 3.0% 33.70 10
8 0 SPONTANEOUS 2.4% 41.98 6
9 0 SPICY GRILL 1.9% 52.06 8
10 0 TELECOM MISSILE 1.9% 52.51 7
11 0 TANG TREASURE 1.2% 84.56 13
12 0 BEST SMILE 1.0% 96.02 11
13 0 APOLLOS BOW 0.7% 147.21 12
14 0 DASHING GRACE 0.4% 223.33 14
GOOD LUCK FRIEND — wonGALACTICYEE CHEONG PEGASUSSWEETLY BABYCOMPASSION SPIRITCHAIRMAN LOBEAUTY ANGELSPONTANEOUSSPICY GRILLTELECOM MISSILETANG TREASUREBEST SMILEAPOLLOS BOWDASHING GRACE

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

4 25.5

PLACE

4 13

7 28

10 11

QUINELLA

4,10 32

QUINELLA PLACE

4,7 50

4,10 17

7,10 43

TIERCE

4,10,7 337

TRIO

4,7,10 78

FIRST 4

1,4,7,10 211

QUARTET

4,10,7,1 2,046

2ND DOUBLE

7/4 218.5

7/10 33

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A3 —

A2 —

A1 12.5