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Sha Tin · 2020-03-22

Race 4

Class 4 GOOD 1400m Course A 14 runners

Result

Official · 1.21.76
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 0 TUNG WAH GLORY Closed strongly P 1.21.76 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) Z Purton · T P Yung 11 7.4 3/4
2 0 TRIPLE TRIPLE Closed strongly N Callan · F C Lor 1 13.0 3/4
3 0 HEZA BEAUTY Closed strongly E/V J Moreira · J Size 9 3.1 1
4 0 COURAGEOUS DRAGON Closed strongly B/TT K Teetan · W Y So 13 10.0 1-3/4
5 0 CIRCUIT HASSLER Closed strongly B/H/TT M Chadwick · A S Cruz 6 7.6 2
6 0 PARTY GENIUS XB G van Niekerk · D J Whyte 12 8.0 2
7 0 SUMSTREETSUMWHERE Closed strongly H/V M F Poon · L Ho 4 13.0 2
8 0 STUNNING IMPACT Closed strongly M L Yeung · P O'Sullivan 7 280.0 3-1/2
9 0 CLASSIC POSH B K C Leung · D J Hall 2 15.0 4-1/4
10 0 TAILOR MADE Closed strongly B Shinn · C W Chang 5 93.0 6
11 0 HAPPY REUNION V Borges · P F Yiu 14 142.0 8-3/4
12 0 MOON PEAKS Led early B/TT H W Lai · K L Man 3 15.0 10-1/2
13 0 SKYEY SUPREME B1/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 26.0 11
14 0 HINYUEN SWIFTNESS B/TT C Wong · C H Yip 10 13.0 18

This site does not show odds as they change: the odds here are final prices after a race, or overnight prices before it.

Race 4 at Sha Tin on 2020-03-22 was Class 4 over 1400m, run on GOOD going. TUNG WAH GLORY, ridden by Z Purton and trained by T P Yung, won by 3/4, with TRIPLE TRIPLE second and HEZA BEAUTY third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. The 3.1 favourite HEZA BEAUTY finished 3rd.

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. TUNG WAH GLORY—2. TRIPLE TRIPLE+0.75L3. HEZA BEAUTY+1L4. COURAGEOUS DRAGON+1.75L5. CIRCUIT HASSLER+2L6. PARTY GENIUS+2L7. SUMSTREETSUMWHERE+2L8. STUNNING IMPACT+3.5L9. CLASSIC POSH+4.25L10. TAILOR MADE+6L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick HEZA BEAUTY (20.7%) finished 3rd — the winner TUNG WAH GLORY was rated #3. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 0 HEZA BEAUTY 20.7% 4.84 3
2 0 CIRCUIT HASSLER 16.7% 6.01 5
3 0 TUNG WAH GLORY 12.7% 7.89 1
4 0 PARTY GENIUS 7.0% 14.30 6
5 0 COURAGEOUS DRAGON 6.7% 14.99 4
6 0 HINYUEN SWIFTNESS 6.6% 15.22 14
7 0 TRIPLE TRIPLE 6.6% 15.22 2
8 0 CLASSIC POSH 5.5% 18.08 9
9 0 SKYEY SUPREME 4.7% 21.24 13
10 0 SUMSTREETSUMWHERE 4.7% 21.31 7
11 0 MOON PEAKS 3.7% 26.74 12
12 0 HAPPY REUNION 3.1% 32.51 11
13 0 TAILOR MADE 0.8% 121.54 10
14 0 STUNNING IMPACT 0.6% 157.11 8
HEZA BEAUTYCIRCUIT HASSLERTUNG WAH GLORY — wonPARTY GENIUSCOURAGEOUS DRAGONHINYUEN SWIFTNESSTRIPLE TRIPLECLASSIC POSHSKYEY SUPREMESUMSTREETSUMWHEREMOON PEAKSHAPPY REUNIONTAILOR MADESTUNNING IMPACT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

10 74

PLACE

1 37

10 30.5

11 14.5

QUINELLA

1,10 447.5

QUINELLA PLACE

1,10 130

1,11 77

10,11 42

TIERCE

10,1,11 2,016

TRIO

1,10,11 248

FIRST 4

1,10,11,14 826

QUARTET

10,1,11,14 21,821

1ST DOUBLE TRIO

4,7,10/1,10,11 3,879

All pools (2 more)

3 PICK 1

A2 36

A3 —

A1 —

3RD DOUBLE

4/1 65

4/10 102.5