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Sha Tin · 2020-03-29

Race 2

Class 4 GOOD 2000m Course A+3 13 runners

Race 2 at Sha Tin on 2020-03-29 was Class 4 over 2000m, run on GOOD going. ABOVE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Moore, won by 6, with GOOD DAYS second and DEFINING MOMENT third. The winner closed strongly from off the pace. Victory came as the 2.2 favourite.

Result

Official · 2.02.45
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 3 ABOVE Closed strongly B 2.02.45 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Moore 7 2.2 6
2 11 GOOD DAYS Closed strongly B/TT V Borges · C S Shum 8 28.0 6
3 4 DEFINING MOMENT Closed strongly Z Purton · C Fownes 13 6.7 6-1/4
4 14 KING PRINT B- T H So · C H Yip 3 135.0 6-1/4
5 12 BULLISH GLORY Closed strongly H C Wong · C W Chang 1 57.0 6-1/2
6 7 EXALTATION Closed strongly B/TT C Schofield · A S Cruz 9 102.0 6-1/2
7 5 GALA NIGHT Led early CP K C Leung · J Moore 5 4.7 6-3/4
8 6 CHEERFUL STAR Closed strongly CP/TT K Teetan · F C Lor 12 13.0 7-1/4
9 10 HAPPY ROCKY Closed strongly B/TT G van Niekerk · C W Chang 14 38.0 8-1/2
10 2 DRAGON COMMANDER B2 C Y Ho · D E Ferraris 2 19.0 8-3/4
11 1 GAYSON B/XB N Callan · J Moore 11 24.0 10-1/2
12 9 HAPPY WIN WIN XB-/TT- M Chadwick · C H Yip 4 11.0 14
13 8 WILLIE WAY B B Shinn · P O'Sullivan 10 53.0 14-3/4
13 GARLIC YEAH V M F Poon · C H Yip 6 27.0

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. ABOVE2. GOOD DAYS+6L3. DEFINING MOMENT+6.25L4. KING PRINT+6.25L5. BULLISH GLORY+6.5L6. EXALTATION+6.5L7. GALA NIGHT+6.75L8. CHEERFUL STAR+7.25L9. HAPPY ROCKY+8.5L10. DRAGON COMMANDER+8.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick ABOVE (21.1%) won this race. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 3 ABOVE 21.1% 4.74 1
2 5 GALA NIGHT 18.8% 5.32 7
3 4 DEFINING MOMENT 11.6% 8.59 3
4 6 CHEERFUL STAR 11.0% 9.12 8
5 9 HAPPY WIN WIN 6.1% 16.34 12
6 12 BULLISH GLORY 5.9% 16.84 5
7 1 GAYSON 5.9% 17.02 11
8 7 EXALTATION 4.9% 20.50 6
9 2 DRAGON COMMANDER 4.2% 23.98 10
10 10 HAPPY ROCKY 3.8% 26.06 9
11 11 GOOD DAYS 3.7% 26.89 2
12 8 WILLIE WAY 1.8% 54.38 13
13 14 KING PRINT 1.1% 89.38 4
ABOVE — wonGALA NIGHTDEFINING MOMENTCHEERFUL STARHAPPY WIN WINBULLISH GLORYGAYSONEXALTATIONDRAGON COMMANDERHAPPY ROCKYGOOD DAYSWILLIE WAYKING PRINT

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

3 22.5

PLACE

3 12.5

4 19.5

11 52.5

QUINELLA

3,11 314

QUINELLA PLACE

3,4 40

3,11 91.5

4,11 195.5

TIERCE

3,11,4 2,561

TRIO

3,4,11 503

FIRST 4

3,4,11,14 12,330

QUARTET

3,11,4,14 127,112

1ST DOUBLE

13/3 436

13/11 377

All pools (1 more)

3 PICK 1

A1 15

A3

A2