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Sha Tin · 2020-03-29

Race 10

Class 2 GOOD 1200m Course A+3 14 runners

Race 10 at Sha Tin on 2020-03-29 was Class 2 over 1200m, run on GOOD going. SHINING ACE, ridden by J Moreira and trained by J Size, won by 2-1/4, with COMPUTER PATCH second and TRANSCENDENT third. The 3.2 favourite PERFECT MATCH finished 7th.

Result

Official · 1.09.31
Pos No. Horse Draw Odds Margin
1 12 SHINING ACE B 1.09.31 ▶ Replay (opens in new tab) J Moreira · J Size 9 12.0 2-1/4
2 7 COMPUTER PATCH XB M Chadwick · J Moore 7 5.9 2-1/4
3 10 TRANSCENDENT TT C Schofield · A S Cruz 1 6.9 2-1/4
4 9 HONG KONG BET TT N Callan · A S Cruz 3 27.0 3
5 8 WATER DIVINER B/H/TT C Y Ho · K W Lui 8 18.0 3-1/4
6 5 DUKE WAI B K Teetan · P O'Sullivan 5 3.8 3-1/2
7 3 PERFECT MATCH B/TT Z Purton · C S Shum 11 3.2 4
8 1 CALIFORNIA WHIP B/H/TT C Wong · A S Cruz 2 11.0 4-1/2
9 6 GUNNISON M F Poon · J Size 6 55.0 6
10 13 SPEED VISION B/TT V Borges · F C Lor 12 162.0 7-3/4
11 14 GRACEANDMERCY H/XB G van Niekerk · A T Millard 10 77.0 7-3/4
12 4 MISSION TYCOON B/TT K C Leung · F C Lor 14 43.0 8-1/2
13 11 HELENA BABY B1 M L Yeung · J Moore 13 359.0 12-1/2
14 2 SPEEDY KING H W Lai · P F Yiu 4 202.0 18

Race shape

Beaten lengths
1. SHINING ACE2. COMPUTER PATCH+2.25L3. TRANSCENDENT+2.25L4. HONG KONG BET+3L5. WATER DIVINER+3.25L6. DUKE WAI+3.5L7. PERFECT MATCH+4L8. CALIFORNIA WHIP+4.5L9. GUNNISON+6L10. SPEED VISION+7.75L

Model ratings

Backtest · wf-2019-20
The model's top pick TRANSCENDENT (26.9%) finished 3rd — the winner SHINING ACE was rated #5. Out-of-sample backtest: this board was produced by a model trained only on seasons before this race — it never saw this result.
Rank No. Horse Win % Rated price Pos
1 10 TRANSCENDENT 26.9% 3.72 3
2 3 PERFECT MATCH 17.7% 5.66 7
3 5 DUKE WAI 13.1% 7.62 6
4 7 COMPUTER PATCH 10.3% 9.73 2
5 12 SHINING ACE 10.2% 9.78 1
6 9 HONG KONG BET 5.6% 17.76 4
7 6 GUNNISON 3.3% 30.05 9
8 13 SPEED VISION 3.2% 31.37 10
9 8 WATER DIVINER 2.6% 38.21 5
10 1 CALIFORNIA WHIP 2.1% 47.81 8
11 14 GRACEANDMERCY 1.7% 58.20 11
12 4 MISSION TYCOON 1.5% 67.73 12
13 2 SPEEDY KING 1.1% 88.57 14
14 11 HELENA BABY 0.7% 150.72 13
TRANSCENDENTPERFECT MATCHDUKE WAICOMPUTER PATCHSHINING ACE — wonHONG KONG BETGUNNISONSPEED VISIONWATER DIVINERCALIFORNIA WHIPGRACEANDMERCYMISSION TYCOONSPEEDY KINGHELENA BABY

Model vs market

Each dot is a runner: model probability across, market-implied probability up. Dots on the dashed line mean the two agreed; the gold ring is the actual winner.

Ratings are statistical estimates for analysis, not betting advice — the backtest shows no profitable edge against the Hong Kong win market. How the model works →

Dividends

Per $10 unit

WIN

12 123

PLACE

7 20

10 24

12 32.5

QUINELLA

7,12 354

QUINELLA PLACE

7,10 73

7,12 107.5

10,12 136

TIERCE

12,7,10 5,791

TRIO

7,10,12 744

FIRST 4

7,9,10,12 2,869

QUARTET

12,7,10,9 76,567

3 PICK 1

A3 41.5

A2

A1

All pools (4 more)

3RD DOUBLE TRIO

2,4,6/7,10,12 184,763

9TH DOUBLE

4/7 34.5

4/12 633

SIX UP

2/1/13/12/4/12 60,859

2,6/1,4/6,13/4,12/4,6/7,12 3,335

1 [J Moreira]

TREBLE

12/4/7 213

12/4/12 2,642